Showing posts with label government spending. Show all posts
Showing posts with label government spending. Show all posts

Thursday, August 9, 2018

Little Red Hen Economics Lesson


There’s an old folk story called “The Little Red Hen.” A hen comes upon a grain of wheat and decides to plant it. She asks for help from various barnyard animals, but none will help. Not with the planting, the watering, the weeding, the harvesting, the threshing, the milling, or the baking into bread.

But then, when it comes to eating, they’re all willing. But the hen turns them away, and feeds the bread only to her little chicks and herself. Image from Wikipedia: 

Was that fair to the other barnyard animals? The purpose of the story is to teach that yes, it was. She worked for her bread, so she got to use it for her own family.
book cover image
from Wikipedia


Having the bread, as the ultimate end of all her labor, meant she was more wealthy than all the other barnyard animals. Is that fair?

Was she more wealthy because she took advantage of the other animals? No.

Had she deprived them of opportunities to work and earn their share? No.

She did make use of the found seed, which seems to be a free resource advantage. But we don’t know if that was a commonly available resource to all, and anyone else who had picked one up and done the work might have yielded the same result.

So you might say that it’s natural for us to believe that the person who makes the bread eats it—or, in other words, the person who earns the wealth gets to decide how to spend it.

That hasn’t been happening for a while in Venezuela. One of the richest in resources, this country had plenty to start with, but socialism ate it all up. People are starving. Money is undergoing hyperinflation. People have shortages of essentials like toilet paper.

Stuart Varney, on Fox News, Monday, points out that Venezuela is a corrupt socialist dictatorship with a collapsing economy. But he warns against intervention. “Send in food, and Maduro extends his power.” It’s a sad tale and not getting better soon. Varney suggests: 

screen shot from Varney on Venezuela


Maybe Venezuela is best used as an example for our own socialists here in America. Socialism is making great strides among young people. Venezuela could be one of those teaching moments. After all, in our schools and colleges, socialism is often held up as something wonderful. The sight of Venezuelans eating out of trash cans might open some eyes. But let’s be clear: Venezuela is done. It is not our fault. It’s not our responsibility. But it is a very strong warning to the pie-in-the-sky socialist dreamers.
One of those pie-in-the-sky socialist dreamers said more economically ignorant things this week, which brought a response (and eye roll) from Ben Shapiro.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez on Pod Save America
image from here
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez was asked on a Pod Save America interview how she planned to pay for her various socialist necessities: single-payer healthcare, free college tuition, guaranteed jobs, guaranteed income for all, etc. You can see her answer here, along with a transcription, which is pretty painful. A friend, who is socialist/progressive/leftist-minded but otherwise a decent guy, and old friendships require some tolerance, promoted a video of her on Facebook today, because he was so impressed with her. There’s no accounting for taste, I guess. Or like-mindedness appeals.

Anyway, on yesterday’s podcast (starting at about 23 minutes) Ben Shapiro shared some of the numbers related to her (and Bernie Sanders’) intended plans. Her answer, Shapiro points out, never responds to the actual question:

I do love the fact that the original question here was, “How do you pay for things?” And her answer is, “Nobody pays for things.” Thank you, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, for that brilliant exposition on the debt and deficit in the United States.
So we’ll just magically keep spending money we don’t have, because she thinks government has an unlimited supply, and all that is needed is someone convincing government to spend it the way she sees fit.

Some things, though, she thinks are stupid spending: tax cuts and wars. Of the $4.3 trillion federal budget this year, what percentage was military spending? 16%. But on social programs?

62% of the entire federal budget goes to mandatory spending under Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. The vast majority goes to social welfare programs that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez says we’re spending too little money on. The fact is, the amount of money we spend per capita in the United States on social welfare programs is actually almost on par with that of the European countries, and actually surpasses some of the European countries.
He adds,

Social Security will be bankrupt in the next decade. Medicare will be bankrupt a decade after that. These programs are not going to be around. Or, if they are around, they’re going to require massive cuts or massive taxes.
While she says we shouldn’t worry about spending, because we’ve never worried about it before—she’s wrong; many of us do worry, because we know debt always comes due, but at least we have economic growth right now, which mitigates the damage slightly—we’ve also never contemplated the insane level of spending she suggests. Ben Shapiro continues:

According to the Mercatus Center, the libertarian leaning center at George Mason University, they estimated that Bernie Sanders’ Medicare for all plan—we talked about this last week—would cost the government $32 trillion over the next decade.
But, we can actually do a budget exercise using nonpartisan and even left-leaning groups. Vox.com, a left-wing source. They talk about what exactly we would have to pay for single-payer health care, a jobs guarantee, and free college; what exactly would it cost? Well, it turns out that it would cost, according to the Tax Policy Center, it would cost legitimately trillions and trillions and trillions and trillions and trillions of dollars. $42.5 trillion in new proposals over the next decade, on top of the $12.4 trillion baseline deficit.
To put this into perspective, according to Vox.com, Washington is currently projected to collect $44 trillion in taxes—in revenues, that’s what they call it—over the next decade. Ok, the Republican tax cut, the “fiscal Armageddon,” will cost less than $2 trillion over the next decade. So we’re going to spend $44 trillion, but Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez says the real problem is those tax cuts that “cost” $2 trillion.
What is the 30-year projected tab for these programs that they’re talking about? The 30-year projected tab is, I kid you not, $218 trillion, on top of an $84 trillion baseline deficit driven by Social Security, Medicare, and the resulting interest costs. Federal spending, which is typically between 18 and 22% of GDP in the United States, would soar past 40% of GDP on its to 50% of GDP within three decades.
She thinks the government shouldn't do something so profligate as letting Americans keep $2 trillion, spread over a decade, of money they earned, but it's a wise "investment" to spend two hundred times that on things that are not within the enumerated powers of government.

I’m trying to picture how vast that $218 trillion "infinity and beyond" number is.

Here’s the Federal Reserve's historical chart of federal spending as a percentage of GDP:



See that spike in the 1940s? That's WWII. Imagine a spike that high by 2030, and nearly triple the normal within 30 years. It’s usually around 20% of GDP. The socialist spending plan would blitz past WWII-era emergency spending, up to between 50%-60% by 2050. 

Assuming we continue with good GDP growth, which we wouldn’t. Because, as we know from the Little Red Hen, when you do all the work yourself, you’re entitled to decide how to spend it. And we know from all the socialist experiments, if you don't get the fruits of your labor, you're not willing to do the labor.

There’s a socialist argument that, all those failed states, they just didn’t do it right; "This time we’ll do it right," they say. But if you’re talking about letting someone as out of touch with reality as either Sanders or Ocasio-Cortez give it a try, there’s zero chance of not making the mistakes that have caused every socialist state to fail. And the more corrupt or just plain wrong those elites who make the decisions, the quicker you get to Venezuela, or Stalinist Russia, or Cuba, or North Korea—any place where you have to force people to stay, and where the state blithely says to its subjects, “Your death is a loss I’m willing to bear.”

Every time a tyrant comes in and seizes power over your decisions on how to spend what you earn, and how to live your life—the eventual end is that you may not get to live your life at all.

The socialists start by breaking “Thou shalt not covet,” continue by breaking “Thou shalt not lie,” and end up breaking, “Thou shalt not murder.” Every time. Don’t trust a covetous liar to wield positions of power.

Tuesday, August 16, 2016

As I've Said Before

Sometimes it’s worth saying things again. The economy changes, but economic principles don’t. So some of what I’ve written can be said again and apply as well today.

I’ve posted a couple of collections of economic “best of” posts:

·         In June of 2013, Best of the Spherical Model, Part II 
·         In March of 2015, More of the Best, Part III 
Among these are some that I think are repeating in full. These two go together: “Parabolas,” from November 2011, and “The Trampoline Effect,” from March 2012.  When we’re in the longest malaise (being called a tepid recovery) since the Great Depression, maybe it’s worth reviewing these.

Parabolas

Natural paraabolic shape
of a recession and recovery
With recessions, the rule is: what goes down must come back up. The natural shape of a recession is a parabola. There’s a sharp drop to as low as it’s going to go, and then the direction changes upward during recovery. If it is allowed to follow the natural course of events, the recovery will essentially mirror the drop—and then keep going up. 
This is a concept my sons, Economic Sphere and Political Sphere, have been sharing with me from time to time. I don’t have the economic math skills to reproduce all the math logic for you, unfortunately. But I think the basic concept will do. Recessions happen because the market needs to correct, from a bubble or maybe a natural disaster--something that interferes with the natural long-term aggregate growth of the free market. But once there’s a drop, then a naturally growing market returns.  

Political Sphere shared an article from Forbes about the concept that recessions follow a natural course—unless interfered with. The article makes that point that the excuse “this time is different” is never true. 
L-shaped recession, natural
recovery is prevented


Real trouble happens when there is interference, usually intended to “help.” According to Wikipedia, one of the shapes a recession can take is the L shape. In this one, the sharp drop happens just as you would expect. But then, instead of bouncing on the bottom and coming back up, the level just sort of dribbles along horizontally near the bottom. Other names for this are “depression,” “lost decade,” and “malaise.” These are all terms beginning to be applied to our current L-shaped recession. They are terms that applied to FDR’s Great Depression as well. 

What is it that causes this recession to be different, to languish at the bottom instead of bouncing back? Government interference. How do we know? 

This is maybe more than you wanted, but here’s a basic formula: 

Y = C + I + G + NX 

Y is GDP (production) in actual dollars.
C is consumption, which is a function of Y-T (taxes).
I is investment, or infusion of new capital (not spending on used materials, or stock exchanges).
G is government spending.
NX is net exports. 

Government can affect Y by increasing spending or raising or lowering taxes. More taxes means less money for consumers to spend, and less taxes means more money for consumers to spend. Indirectly investment will be affected if Y decreases, when there is less profit to be made. But mainly the other way government can change Y is by increasing government spending.  

I had to ask Economic Sphere why the formula includes “+G” instead of “-G.” In theory, G is just another product consumers (we the people) spend money on. To some degree it’s necessary. So the amount spent on G is just another part of the measure of GDP. However, when spending on government is too high—includes debt—it temporarily appears that the G portion of the economy shows actual growth in GDP. But that is an illusion.

natural ups and downs of
business cycle show a sine wave
It appears, in the short run, that government spending (or stimulus) increases Y. But Y’s rate of growth is, in a natural free market, fairly constant. There is fluctuation, an ongoing sine wave, or little rises and dips, but you can draw a line through that at approximately the natural rate of growth (maybe somewhere near 4%). Government spending can’t change that. It doesn’t affect aggregate supply; it only affects aggregate demand. So it may appear for a time that it has affected growth, but there will be a natural pull back to the equilibrium point where aggregate supply and demand intersect. There will be a correction. So the more government does to try to make the market go up, the greater will be the eventual correction back to the natural rate of growth. 

The longer and greater the government over-expenditures, the more drastic will be the inevitable correction. 

So what happens if government sees that inevitable drop and tries to prevent it—with more government spending? It causes an even greater drop. If the measures are taken after the drop, presumably in an effort to stop more drop or cause a rise, it interferes with the natural recovery. That is what we’re seeing now. 

Greater government spending at a time when great government spending already caused the dip is like hitting the economy over the head and beating it down. Every new interference, every new beat down, leaves the economy languishing down at the bottom, unable to rise because of the repeated drop-causing interferences. When they say, “The economy was in much worse shape than we thought; imagine how bad a shape we’d be in if we had done nothing,” you can know for certain that things are worse because of what they did in their ignorant attempts to control a natural force.  

If government wants to have a positive effect on GNP, it needs to cut spending. Since it can’t (won’t) cut to zero, the next best thing would be to cut to the bare bones of the enumerated powers of the Constitution. At the same time, lowering rather than raising taxes will help. Both lowered government spending and lowered taxes leave more money available for growth.

The Trampoline Effect
The other night I was reading something about the recovering economy—a recovery so tepid we can’t perceive it; instead we must take government’s word for it. Never comforting. And the reading led me to talk with my son Political Sphere about the concept that, the deeper the recession, the stronger the following recovery. I wrote about this principle with more detail in “Parabolas” on November 21st.
So, we were discussing this concept, and Political Sphere unveiled what he calls the Trampoline Effect. On a trampoline, the harder you come down (from a higher or heavier fall), the higher and more powerful the bounce back up. But if a big brother (yes, he worded it that way, with plenty of extra meanings) steps in to “help,” it doesn’t help. It usually disturbs the bounce, taking the energy out of it, and you end up with buckled knees and a few small bounces fading into flatness.
photo from trampoline.com

Picture the difference between a parabola (the natural down and back up bounce) and what is euphemistically referred to as an L-shaped recovery, but is really just the dribble that happens from interference in the bounce.
Big Brother “helping” is the government stepping in, taking actions that interfere with the energy of the natural growing economy.

So, every time you hear someone say, “We had to do something,” or “Think how bad it would be if we hadn’t taken action,” translate that in your mind to the Trampoline Effect. Does the jumper need you to step in and “help” in order to bounce back up? No, that is going to happen unless you interfere.

A recovery, by definition, is coming back up to at least the starting point. If that hasn’t happened, we’re either still going down, or we’re stuck down flat because of the interference. What we need is for Big Brother to get out of the way so we can make a few small tentative bounces and put our energy into building up a good parabolic rise. But every time he steps in, he zaps the energy out of your bounce and leaves you flagging.

Thursday, March 10, 2016

Economic Freedom in Good Measure

Yesterday I came across The Heritage Foundation’s 2016 Index of Economic Freedom. If you like charts, maps, and visual representations of related data, this is a great playground.

There’s an explanatory video under “About the Index,” that explains how economic freedom relates to other factors of civilization. Freedom, prosperity, and civilization are interrelated, as we assert here at The Spherical Model.

Here are a couple of excerpts from the video:

In addition to enjoying higher levels of financial prosperity, people in these free societies live longer, have better health, are more educated, and, surprisingly, are better protectors of the environment....
So, why does all this matter? It turns out that while there’s no single solution to the world’s major challenges, economic freedom can have a powerful effect on improving society. Our data shows that the five freest economies in each region are significantly more prosperous than the five least free. Every year’s index confirms this point, showing that countries that score higher on the index also perform higher in three key areas: income per capita, social progress, and democratic governance.



For each year, the data includes an overall score, which is made up of data on ten economic freedoms divided into four categories (followed with this year’s US scores, with 80.0 and above qualifying as “mostly free”):

·         Rule of Law
o   Property Rights  80.0
o   Freedom from Corruption  74.0
·         Government Size
o   Fiscal Freedom  65.6
o   Government Spending  54.7
·         Regulatory Efficiency
o   Business Freedom  84.7
o   Labor Freedom  91.4
o   Monetary Freedom  77.0
·         Open Markets
o   Trade Freedom  87.0
o   Investment Freedom  70.0

o   Financial Freedom  70.0
You can get an explanation of their methodology on page 467 of their book, or look around at heritage.org/index .

The US ranks only 11th most economically free country this year. A quick snapshot of the US scores reveal the following:

Economic Freedom Snapshot
·         2016 Economic Freedom Score: 75.4 (down 0.8 points)
·         Economic Freedom Status: Mostly Free
·         Global Ranking: 11th
·         Regional Ranking: 2nd in North America
·         Notable Successes: Open Markets
·         Concerns: Management of Public Finance and Rule of Law
·         Overall Score Change Since 2012: –0.9
That last one, because it’s an average, doesn’t show that last year there was a downturn of 0.8 points, after a year of improvement.

I’m interested in, not just change over the past year, but longer trends. So I charted these ten freedoms from 1995-2016, based on the Heritage data. I wondered whether we would see trends toward or away from freedom based on who elected leaders were, and what was going on in the country at the time. (I’m assuming that other years were like 2016, with the information coming out in the first quarter, which means that we’re looking at what happened in the previous year.) Here’s what I see:


·         Property Rights start out consistently high, fully free, until 2010, and then deteriorated further in 2014, so that we now hang at the bottom of the freedom zone, at 80.
·         Freedom from Corruption also started high, but suffered a serious drop in 1997, and declined further, with some ups and downs, to a further drop in 2008, dropping significantly again in 2013, with a slight rise since, leaving us only "moderately free," at 74.0.
·         Fiscal Freedom starts low, at 64.8, and doesn’t show much of a rise until 2004. A slow rise and maintenance continues until a sharp drop in 2014, and another drop in 2016, ending at 65.6.
·         Government Spending (a rise here means the problem is less, because there’s less spending) starts terribly low, at  a "mostly unfree" 57.8, rising sharply in 2000, dropping following the 9/11 attack, but remaining steady until drops changed from slow to sharp in 2010, with a low of  a "repressive" 46.7 in 2012, with slight increases since, ending at 54.7. Changing this factor might do the most in improving US economic freedom.
·         Business Freedom stayed steady at 85.0 until improvement in 2006, maintaining or remaining steady until 2015, with a sharp drop this year, ending at 84.7, still considered free, but lower than ever on record.
·         Labor Freedom wasn’t recorded until 2005. It held around 95.0, with a couple of years higher, until a sudden drop this year, ending at 91.4, still quite free, but trending the wrong direction.
·         Monetary Freedom stayed steady around 84.0 until 2009, with drops continuing through 2014, with slight improvement the final two years, ending at 77.0.
·         Trade Freedom started increasing in 2001, up into the freedom zone, with considerable improvement in 2004, then dropping back out of freedom into moderate freedom in 2009, continuing to drop through 2012, with slight improvement since, ending at 77.0.
·         Investment Freedom stayed steadily at 70.0 until three good years 2006-2008, then dropping back down and remaining at 70.0 since 2011.
·         Financial Freedom stayed steadily at 70.0 until a sharp improvement to 90.0, well into freedom, 2001-2006, dropping to 80.00 for three years, then back down to 70.0 from 2009 to present.
The overall score has a number of ups and downs, but the general trend is up from 2001-2008, then decreasing since, with a slight uptick in 2015 followed by a final drop to a the low 75.4. We were only considered economically free from 2005-2008. It would be interesting to go back further, to see what the measures looked like as we left the Carter administration malaise and entered better economic times under Reagan, even with nothing but Democrat legislators during those years.

For what was set up to be the grand experiment in freedom, with government limited to protecting our rights to life liberty and property, we’re nowhere near as economically free as we ought to be. Because government oversteps.

We know what works, in all of these measures: a lot less government interference; laws that are reasonable, predictable, and fair; in a country that protects itself from attacks. Good people, anywhere in the world, can take it from there.

Monday, November 21, 2011

Parabolas

natural parabolic shape
of a recession and recovery
With recessions, the rule is: what goes down must come back up. The natural shape of a recession is a parabola. There’s a sharp drop to as low as it’s going to go, and then the direction changes upward during recovery. If it is allowed to follow the natural course of events, the recovery will essentially mirror the drop—and then keep going up. 

This is a concept my sons, Economic Sphere and Political Sphere, have been sharing with me from time to time. I don’t have the economic math skills to reproduce all the math logic for you, unfortunately. But I think the basic concept will do. Recessions happen because the market needs to correct, from a bubble or maybe a natural disaster--something that interferes with the natural long-term aggregate growth of the free market. But once there’s a drop, then a naturally growing market returns.  

Political Sphere shared an article from Forbes about the concept that recessions follow a natural course—unless interfered with. The article makes that point that the excuse “this time is different” is never true. 

L-shaped recession, natural
recovery is prevented
Real trouble happens when there is interference, usually intended to “help.” According to Wikipedia, one of the shapes a recession can take is the L shape. In this one, the sharp drop happens just as you would expect. But then, instead of bouncing on the bottom and coming back up, the level just sort of dribbles along horizontally near the bottom. Other names for this are “depression,” “lost decade,” and “malaise.” These are all terms beginning to be applied to our current L-shaped recession. They are terms that applied to FDR’s Great Depression as well. 

What is it that causes this recession to be different, to languish at the bottom instead of bouncing back? Government interference. How do we know? 

This is maybe more than you wanted, but here’s a basic formula: 

Y = C + I + G + NX 

Y is GDP (production) in actual dollars.
C is consumption, which is a function of Y-T (taxes).
I is investment, or infusion of new capital (not spending on used materials, or stock exchanges).
G is government spending.
NX is net exports. 

Government can affect Y by increasing spending or raising or lowering taxes. More taxes means less money for consumers to spend, and less taxes means more money for consumers to spend. Indirectly investment will be affected if Y decreases, when there is less profit to be made. But mainly the other way government can change Y is by increasing government spending.  

I had to ask Economic Sphere why the formula includes “+G” instead of “-G.” In theory, G is just another product consumers (we the people) spend money on. To some degree it’s necessary. So the amount spent on G is just another part of the measure of GDP. However, when spending on government is too high—includes debt—it temporarily appears that the G portion of the economy shows actual growth in GDP. But that is an illusion. 

natural ups and downs of
business cycle show a sine wave
It appears, in the short run, that government spending (or stimulus) increases Y. But Y’s rate of growth is, in a natural free market, fairly constant. There is fluctuation, an ongoing sine wave, or little rises and dips, but you can draw a line through that at approximately the natural rate of growth (maybe somewhere near 4%). Government spending can’t change that. It doesn’t affect aggregate supply; it only affects aggregate demand. So it may appear for a time that it has affected growth, but there will be a natural pull back to the equilibrium point where aggregate supply and demand intersect. There will be a correction. So the more government does to try to make the market go up, the greater will be the eventual correction back to the natural rate of growth. 

The longer and greater the government over-expenditures, the more drastic will be the inevitable correction. 

So what happens if government sees that inevitable drop and tries to prevent it—with more government spending? It causes an even greater drop. If the measures are taken after the drop, presumably in an effort to stop more drop or cause a rise, it interferes with the natural recovery. That is what we’re seeing now. 

Greater government spending at a time when great government spending already caused the dip is like hitting the economy over the head and beating it down. Every new interference, every new beat down, leaves the economy languishing down at the bottom, unable to rise because of the repeated drop-causing interferences. When they say, “The economy was in much worse shape than we thought; imagine how bad a shape we’d be in if we had done nothing,” you can know for certain that things are worse because of what they did in their ignorant attempts to control a natural force.  

If government wants to have a positive effect on GNP, it needs to cut spending. Since it can’t (won’t) cut to zero, the next best thing would be to cut to the bare bones of the enumerated powers of the Constitution. At the same time, lowering rather than raising taxes will help. Both lowered government spending and lowered taxes leave more money available for growth.