Go Ahead and Party: or The Two Weeks That Stretched into a Year, Part III

Our current occupant of the White House made his first actual public address last Thursday, for about 20 minutes. Among the words he read to us, he told us that, if we’re good little children, and have our vaccinations in the next month or two, then, maybe, by the 4^th or July we can consider getting together with close family who also have their vaccinations, maybe outside, and to be safe wear masks:

Because here's the point, if we do all this [get vaccinated], if we do our part, if we do this together, by July the 4th, there's a good chance you, your families and friends will be able to get together in your backyard or your neighborhood and have a cookout and a barbecue and celebrate Independence Day.

That doesn’t mean large events with lots of people together, but it does mean small groups will be able to get together.

He added,

We need everyone to get vaccinated. We need everyone to keep washing their hands, stay socially distanced, and keep wearing the mask as recommended by the CDC.

So, if we get everyone vaccinated, we still need to keep washing our hands, stay socially distanced, and keep wearing masks. But if we do all that, we can be in the presence of other vaccinated people maybe by July 4^th?

image from Sen. Ted Cruz's Facebook page

Does this make sense?

If it were small pox—a much more dangerous disease—and you got vaccinated, would you wait an extra half a year to be around other people that are also vaccinated? If you’re my age, you got vaccinated for small pox as a small child. You didn’t have to quarantine for any time at all. You got to be around everybody right afterward, and the whole rest of your life (in this case, because the disease was eradicated; other vaccinations, like tetanus, may need a booster). Because that’s how vaccinations work. You might want to make sure you’re not exposed to the disease within a couple of days of the shot. Beyond that, you’re considered to be immune.

For this much less risky disease (not risk-free, but only likely to cause death in 1/10,000 people who are young and healthy), why the extra time?

Actually, they haven’t even made a case for getting the vaccine at all when the illness is so unlikely to cause death and is so treatable. In fact, people are starting to note that, if you’re in those younger healthier demographics, your risk of death by vaccine is considerably higher than your risk of death by the coronavirus. And the virus is treatable, while reaction to the vaccine is not.

image found here

Then there’s this other truth that seems to be forgotten: in most parts of the country, businesses were opened to at least partial capacity sometime early summer 2020, and have expanded since. Our church gatherings started at 50 during late summer and expanded to about 100 in the fall, assuming all other precautions are taken.

Small gatherings of up to 10 people were allowed almost everywhere, maybe even California.

While we Americans didn’t have many big gatherings (except maybe for BLM protests) all year, we were seeing our families, with some precautions. We had July 4^th with family last year. And birthdays. And Thanksgiving. And Christmas.

Now that many are vaccinated, we should be feeling even more free to do those things.

Vaccinated people—and people who have recovered from the illness in the past half year—should not have to wear masks (assuming masks actually work at all); they can neither get nor spread the virus. The only reason for them to social distance is to avoid spreading some other illness, like the common cold or the annual flu. We ought to get used to seeing people without masks and assuming they are immune—rather than assuming they care so little about others that they don’t care if they spread the illness.

Biden also said,

Listen to Dr. Fauci, one of the most distinguished and trusted voices in the world. He's assured us the vaccines are safe.

Fauci also just came out and said we don’t need 6 feet of social distancing; 3 feet is sufficient. Did science change? Or is he just throwing out whatever he thinks at the moment, the way he has been doing all along? I don’t think Dr. Fauci has been a trusted voice for a very long time.

Biden offered up this sort-of-sentence (I challenge you to diagram it):

Just as we were emerging from a dark winter into a hopeful spring and summer is not the time to not stick with the rules.

So much for clarity.

There was actually something in the speech I agree with—the words, anyway. He said,

Look, we know what we need to do to beat this virus. Tell the truth. Follow the scientists and the science.

Depending on the scientists, and whether politics has infiltrated, yes, I agree. And he emphasized with this anecdote:

Last summer, I was in Philadelphia, and I met a small-business owner, a woman. I asked her, I said, “What do you need most?”

I will never forget what she said to me. She said — looking me right in the eye, she said, “I just want the truth, the truth. Just tell me the truth.”

If only they would!

Despite the lack of truth, there are some things we know.

The estimate of 2.5 million dead was based on a radically flawed model; besides wildly exaggerating, it also assumed we would do nothing to protect ourselves.

The only way to eradicate the virus early on was to isolate every case. This wasn’t going to be possible, because, as we were told, there was a long period between exposure and onset of symptoms, and a person could possibly spread the virus for several days before the onset. Unless everyone locked down for longer than that contamination period, then the virus would still exist.

The loss of life due to shutting down the entire world for 2-3 weeks would be tremendous. It would mean shutting down hospitals and any other type of care. It would mean shutting down food supplies—and every other kind of supply. None of this “essential workers only.” You’d have to shut down all workers for that length of time, including treatment of those already ill with the virus.

If you can’t shut down the entirety of society, the shutdown has no expectation of eradicating the virus. And that means worldwide. There was a brief period in which New Zealand, an island nation, was able to isolate long enough to eradicate all cases. Done. But as soon as there was any contact with the rest of the world, cases started happening again.

In short, shutting down the entire world to beat the virus was never an option.

Remember, the purpose of the 2-3-week shutdown, begun exactly one year ago, was never to eradicate the virus; it was to “flatten the curve,” which meant to prevent the healthcare system from becoming so overwhelmed it would have to leave some people untreated.

We flattened the curve. But that, in itself, came at a cost—beyond the obvious costs to people’s businesses, and plans for other healthcare that they needed. It made eradicating the illness by natural means further away. It delayed herd immunity.

Herd immunity is the goal of vaccination: get enough people in the population to have antibodies so that the virus doesn’t easily find a new host to spread to. We could have done that months ago if we had:

·         Been accurate about the risks to the different population groups (age and other risk factors), which were known quite early on.

·         Protect those most at risk by limiting their possible exposure.

·         Allowed appropriate low-cost treatments from the beginning (they were actually known by 2005, but were being used by March, until, while continuing to research other treatments, possibly while also working toward a vaccine.

·         Taken good care of ourselves (diet, exercise, vitamin D and zinc levels, etc.)

·         Carried on with our daily lives without lockdowns or masks.       

If we had done that, our deaths would have been exponentially lower, and deaths to other causes (delayed care, suicide, etc.) would also have been lower. Extending the time to "flatten the curve" way beyond the original need magnified all the costs.

What we went through this year was not a necessary tribulation; it was imposed hardship by government seizing power while claiming it was all for our good.

tweet image passed along by Buck Sexton here

What we haven’t had is truth. And what we do not get—and will continue not to get—from this president and his ilk is truth.

He claimed the lie that we were hit with “a virus that was met with silence and spread unchecked, denials for days, weeks, then months.” Actually, while Democrats—him included—were deriding President Trump as xenophobic for closing travel from China, and were calling people to attend Chinese New Year celebrations in large downtown gatherings, President Trump set plans into action. He brought back manufacturing of PPE and critical supply chains, which shouldn’t have been sourced through our enemies in the first place (Obama/Biden administration), and gathered information and data, and spread information as we got it in daily briefings. Anything President Trump did went overnight from fearmongering to being in denial. Meanwhile the President put together Operation Warp Speed and set a goal to have a vaccine by the end of the year—years faster than any previous expectation. Pre-election Biden mockingly said it would take a miracle. The other night, he said,

The development, manufacture and distribution of vaccines in record time is a true miracle of science. It's one of the most extraordinary achievements any country has ever accomplished.

All of this was done prior to his administration, but he gives no credit where it is due. He announced on inauguration day that the previous administration had failed to even have a plan, and there was no promised vaccine—even though he had already had both doses himself.

By mid-December 130,000 people had received the vaccine, in “the biggest mass vaccination in US history.” 

President Trump’s team provided 20 million doses by the first week of January, plus 30 million more later in January, with a plan for an additional 50 million in February. That’s 100 million. Enough for 50 million to have both doses. I expect he had manufacturing underway and a rollout plan for March, rather than just halt everything. I think we can conservatively assume a million more for March. We credit 200 million to Trump, then. This is only two-thirds of the number of doses hoped for in early projections. But since the normal expectation at this point—and for several years hence—would be zero, let’s just admit it’s far better than nothing.

Biden claimed in his speech to have just ordered another 100 million, enough for 50 million more adults. He says it’s months ahead of schedule to have enough doses for every adult by the end of May. That’s about 241 million adults, or a total of 482 million doses. Doing the math, Trump provided 100 million, with plans for maybe that much more in March. Biden just added 100 million more, for April. That’s 300 million, leaving him just 182 million needed by May to reach the absolute maximum.

That, of course, is far more than is necessary—because not every adult is willing to get the vaccine. To get herd immunity totally from the vaccine (disregarding those who have immunity from getting the disease, and just lumping them in as if there aren’t any such people), you’d need 70% to get herd immunity. That’s about 170 million. So he really needs just an additional 40 million doses by the end of May. Considering that Trump’s original plan was for 300 million ASAP, it doesn’t look like the Biden administration is doing anything but saying, “Carry on.” Yet he says in his speech this is “months ahead of schedule.” Hmm.

Adult Population	70% to reach herd immunity	Doses needed	Doses provided or lined up by Trump administration: December-March	Doses by Biden administration: April	Additional needed: May
241 million	~170 million	340 million	200 million	100 million	40 million

 

There’s the additional lack of truth surrounding the relief package, creatively called the American Rescue Plan, that just passed. Each person gets $1400. But the $1.9 billion bill as a whole costs each person—I’ve seen estimates between $5,800 and $50,000. Any way you look at it, having someone take your money, give you back a pittance of it, and then insist you call them generous is just plain ludicrous. (Rep. Dan Crenshaw did a good parody of the situation, using the lower estimate.)

Biden claims this generous package will magically “cut child poverty in this country in half” and “create millions of jobs.” If you hadn’t stopped believing him long ago, you probably ought to get around to that now.

Who knows what he’ll say next time he’s allowed in front of a mic to read a teleprompter? But you can be pretty sure it won’t be the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth.

In the meantime, unfortunately we must continue to distrust our government. To compensate, I suggest a party. With family and loved ones. And no masks. Invite the neighbors too. Do it for St. Patrick’s Day. And Easter. And Memorial Day. And Flag Day. And any birthdays that come up. Waiting until July 4^th is unnecessary and unthinkable.