Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Tops and Middles

New data map from here
I had a casual dinner conversation over the weekend in which the top 1% came up. I pointed out that two of my dinner companion’s brothers were in the top 1%. She protested. I couldn’t remember numbers, but I kind of insisted it was anyone making over about $250,000 a year. She insisted it was in the several millions. I knew I was closer (and her brothers probably fit into at least the top 2%). But I was second-guessing myself and came home to look up the numbers. I was much closer than she was.

The numbers I came up with are from 2012, which isn’t very satisfying, but there you go.* [I found the information here.] Anyway, I’ve listed the top 1% in each state, from least to most. I also wondered about median income (per household) by state and various questions about the relationship between the top and the middle.
So here’s the data, followed by a couple of comments. (Delta is the difference between the top 1% and the median family income. The ratio is the top 1% divided by the median family income for that state.)
           Top 1% $300,000 or under                  Median in state                              Delta             Ratio Top 1%/Median
1.      Idaho               $274,000         $45,489           $228,511         6.0
2.      Montana          $280,000         $45,076           $234,924         6.2
3.      Arkansas          $283,000         $40,112          $242,888         7.0
4.      New Mexico    $286,000         $42,558           $243,442         6.7
5.      Wyoming         $295,000         $54,901*        $240,099         5.4*
6.      Alabama          $299,000         $41,574           $257,426         7.2
7.      South Carolina $300,000         $43,107           $256,893         7.0 

           Above $300,000 up to $400,000           Median in state                              Delta             Ratio Top 1%/Median
8.      West Virginia  $304,000         $40,196             $263,804         7.6
9.      Indiana            $307,000         $46,974             $260,026         6.5
10.  Mississippi      $309,000         $37,095*            $271,905         8.3*
11.  Kentucky         $311,000         $41,724              $269,276         7.5
12.  Iowa                $316,000         $50,957               $265,043         6.2
13.  Maine              $322,000         $46,709              $275,291         6.9
14.  Nebraska         $329,000         $50,723              $278,277         6.5
15.  Wisconsin        $334,000         $51,059             $282,941         6.5
16.  Ohio                $334,000         $46,829              $287,171         7.1
17.  Oklahoma        $335,000         $44,312             $290,688         7.6
18.  Missouri           $335,000         $45,321             $289,679         7.4
19.  Louisiana         $335,000         $42,944             $292,056         7.8
20.  Hawaii             $337,000         $66,259*           $270,741         5.1
21.  Tennessee        $338,000         $42,764             $295,236         7.9
22.  North Carolina $338,000         $45,150             $292,850         7.5
23.  Arizona            $339,000         $47,826             $291,174         7.1
24.  Delaware         $339,000         $58,415             $280,585         5.8*
25.  Michigan         $340,000         $46,859             $293,141         7.3
26.  Nevada            $340,000         $49,760             $290,240         6.8
27.  Utah                 $340,000         $57,049            $282,951         6.0
28.  Oregon             $342,000         $49,161            $292,839         7.0
29.  Vermont          $349,000         $52,977             $296,023         6.6
30.  Kansas             $351,000         $50,241            $300,759         7.0
31.  South Dakota   $352,000         $48,362            $303,638         7.3
32.  Alaska             $354,000         $67,712*           $286,288         5.2
33.  Rhode Island   $359,000         $54,554             $304,446         6.6
34.  Georgia           $365,000         $47,209             $317,791         7.7
35.  Florida             $367,000         $45,040             $321,791         8.1*
36.  New Hampshire$375,000        $63,280*          $311,720         5.9
37.  Washington      $378,000         $57,573            $320,427         6.6
38.  Pennsylvania   $387,000         $51,223             $335,777         7.6
39.  Texas               $391,000         $50,740             $340,260         7.7 

            Above $400,000                                     Median in state              Delta             Ratio Top 1%/Median
40.  Colorado          $406,000         $56,765            $349,235         7.2
41.  California         $433,000         $58,328            $374,672         7.4
42.  Minnesota        $408,000         $58,906            $349,094         6.9
43.  Illinois             $413,000          $55,137            $357,863         7.5
44.  Virginia            $433,000         $61,741*          $371,259         7.0
45.  Maryland         $435,000         $71,122*           $363,878         6.1
46.  North Dakota   $455,000         $53,585             $401,415         8.5*
47.  New York        $511,000         $56,448             $454,552         9.1*
48.  Massachusetts  $499,000         $65,339*           $433,661         7.6
49.  New Jersey      $504,000         $69,667*           $434,333         7.2
50.  Connecticut     $642,000         $67,276*           $574,724         9.5*
51.  DC                   $688,000         $66,583*           $621,417       10.3*

 
I marked the median state level for top 1% (as many states below and above); it’s $340,000, which is the actual top1% for three states. The range of top 1%-ers goes from a low of $274,000 in Idaho, up to $688,000 in Washington, DC (not even a state, but an expensive US place to live).  

Doing some math fun, I notice that the range of 1%-ers from the lowest to median is only $66,000. The range from the median to the high is $348,000. So I wondered, where does $66,000 above the median land; I’m sure you were wondering that very thing. That’s $406,000, right where Colorado is. Forty states fit within this range. I’m thinking, then, that states that don’t fit within $66,000 of the median are outliers, exceptions. There are ten states plus DC in this group. California plus the DC to New York/Connecticut corridor, with North Dakota randomly tossed in.  

My chart also shows median income for all the states. I wanted to see if regular people have to make more in the same states as the top 1% need more income to reach their top status. There’s some correlation. Forty-five states have median household incomes under $60,000 a year. Those that don’t are all among the outliers requiring high incomes for their top 1%.  

There are a couple of lower outliers as well. Mississippi has the lowest median income, at $37,095, while it ranks tenth lowest for its 1%-ers; even with that low 1%-er ranking, the top earn 8.3 times what the median family earns.  

Wyoming has a midrange median family income of $54,901, while ranking fifth for its 1%-ers.  So cost of living is low, and it doesn’t take that much to get to the top. (Go into oil, except when it’s at $50 a barrel, like now.) And then you have a place like Hawaii, with a relatively low rank for 1%-ers, but a surprisingly high $66,259 for median family income—high cost of living, but not so much harder to reach the top.  

In general, it takes a lot of money to live in the coastal bastions of “progressivism.” And apparently a lot of people make good money in North Dakota as well—maybe because of the oil boom there. (Again, the data is from 2012—with boom underway and no oil price slump yet.) 

What the chart doesn’t tell us is what lifestyle looks like for the top 1% and the median family. I looked at the ratio to see how many years it would take a median family to earn what a top 1% family earns in a year. That tells us a little about disparity, but not everything.  

Look at my state of Texas. There’s opportunity to get into the top 1% (it’s within $66,000 of the median states’ top 1% range), but the standard of living for the median family in Texas is pretty good. It’s not an outlier with a 7.7 ratio, but it does seem to have a relatively high disparity, if you don’t know that a median family might be buying a house in the suburbs. In Connecticut, it takes the median family 9.5 years to make what the top 1% make in a year—and the cost of living (made worse by taxes) leaves the median family probably hopeless about home buying. 

As for the dinner conversation—I admit I was low-balling the estimate for top 1% earners. Mea culpa. But I was right in that the top 1% are pretty nearly regular people, probably living in nice suburban homes, maybe with some extra property. They could be business owners, or maybe professionals who’ve had time to build up their business over some decades. But they aren't what most of us think of as "filthy rich." They might have more freedom to travel and invest than many. But they’re not casually buying numerous mansions and yachts and private jets.  

If you think the top 1% are multi-millionaires (by income every year), then you’re mistaking them for the top .1% (1 per thousand) . Or maybe the top .01% (one per ten thousand). There aren’t that many of those, no matter how many you see in media. And even if you confiscate all the wealth from all those super-high earners, you don’t lift standard of living nearly as well as those people can by hiring and spending on their own. 

So, re-read the Ten Commandments, and notice that one about “Thou shalt not covet” (also here). Let go of class envy and the associated false misperceptions. And trust that there is enough abundance in the world and to spare for all who follow the principles of freedom, prosperity, and civilization.


* PS: This evening, while looking for something graphic to go with this post (which I used above), I find that CNN put out a story today with some updated data. I’m not going to redo my math, since that wasn’t my point. Suffice it to say, what growth there has been since 2012 has been top heavy. Where there was disparity, there’s now more. It’s more pronounced where “progressives” enact their policies.

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