The date that has been looming on our calendars for so very
long is upon us. And then life changes. And we don’t know what our country will
look like the day after.
Found on Facebook, credited to TheFreeThoughtProject.com |
I don’t know what is going to happen. But I thought it
wouldn’t hurt to look at some of the least likely outcomes, and then look at
what we can probably expect.
No One Gets 270
Electoral Votes
The 270 number is half of the country’s electoral votes. If
the two major candidates are close, and a third candidate gets some electoral
votes (wins in at least one state). Then no one automatically gets declared the
winner. If this happens, then a weird rule takes over: the US Congress chooses
the president.
This isn’t an impossibility. For the first time in half a
century, a third candidate might possibly win a state’s electors. The most
likely is independent candidate Evan McMullin, who has a chance of
winning Utah, where he’s within the margin of error in the latest polls. (He
was up by several points in some polls the week the
audio came out of Trump from ten years ago claiming he’d sexually assaulted
women with impunity.)
A less likely possibility would be Libertarian candidate
Gary Johnson winning New Mexico, where he served as governor.
If it came to this standoff, so Congress has the historic
opportunity to decide the presidency, what would they do? I think the
assumption has to be that they would favor the candidate of their party, which
is Republican.
Evan McMullin worked as a policy advisor to Congress. He is
known there, particularly by Republicans. McMullin has been a conservative Republican
all along, and is only running as an independent for the election—in contrast
to Donald Trump, who is running as a Republican only for the election and has
never been a conservative. Since the two main candidates are both strongly disliked by a majority of the country, it’s not inconceivable that there would be a sense of relief that we could choose someone else. So it’s not out of the question that Congress could
elect McMullin.
But it’s still unlikely. Pressure from the electorate would sound
deafening. Many would fear to do anything except vote for their party’s
nominee--unless something even more horrible comes out about Trump, like a
sudden sexual assault arrest or some other provable accusation leading to
prison.
The Electoral College
Rebels
Contrary to popular belief, we don’t directly elect the
president. We elect representatives of our state’s votes. This design was to
protect the votes of all, rather than to allow large urban centers or
particular regions from having all the say. Check out the Prager U video, if
you need to review (here and here).
One of the less likely purposes for the electoral college is
to address the scenario that the popularly elected president turns out to be unacceptable
(new information comes out of criminal activity or moral turpitude). The
electors wouldn’t be forced to vote for such a dirtbag; they could change their
vote.
During the past week, this started to look like a possible outcome
if Hillary got indicted between election day and the electoral college vote on
December 19. Over the weekend FBI Director Comey came out again to say he didn’t
recommend prosecuting Hillary Clinton for her multiple breaches of national
security. In the meantime, a Democrat elector from Washington State has
promised not to vote for her, regardless of the popular vote outcome.
Since her known crimes so far have failed to bring even an
indictment, despite all the aides pleading the 5th (i.e., admitting
wrongdoing), and because the corruption in the entire Department of Justice is
led by the current administration, who is ideologically aligned with her, we
can’t expect truth and accuracy. The likelihood of more electors stepping up
and refusing to vote for this criminal is low, alas.
One of the Main
Candidates Becomes President
This is indeed the likely outcome. I’m not sitting on the
edge of my seat, anxious to know which of them that will be. My guess is that
it will be Hillary Clinton—the most corrupt, most socialist, most unsuitable
candidate ever to step into the Oval Office.
Found on Facebook, credited to Being Libertarian |
Here’s one more longshot: those rumors about her ill health
turn out to be true, and she becomes incapable of carrying out her duties as
president. That would leave us with a vice-president stepping up. Tim Kaine is
probably not better in policy, but it would be hard to be as corrupt as she is,
so that would be considered a slight improvement. Also, because he would be
unelected, Congress might be willing to stand up to him, we could hope.
There is a pair of Daily News Editorials—one laying
out the case against Trump, followed by one laying out the case against Hillary.
There’s enough accuracy in both that
it brings to mind the battle of wits scene from The Princess Bride. Vizzini
lists the reasons “I can clearly not choose the wine in front of you,” and then
lists the reasons “I can clearly not choose the wine in front of me.” Clearly
either choice was deadly, as Vizzini shortly learned the hard way.
But, since one of the two choices will be foisted on us, what
happens from Wednesday on?
Four years ago, the morning after a disappointing election,
which made me feel that America was lost, this scripture came to mind:
Philippians 4:8
Finally, brethren,
whatsoever things are true, whatsoever things are honest, whatsoever things are
just, whatsoever things are pure, whatsoever things are lovely, whatsoever
things are of good report; if there be any virtue, and if there be any praise,
think on these things.
I’ve been trying to do that since.
There are—and will be—things
that are just wrong, that seem intolerable, things which should not be
tolerated. But we cannot live our lives in outrage. We need to live. We can live as best we
can, as most of humankind has had to do, without the blessing of the freedom,
prosperity, and civilization we know we are missing. Whatever our
circumstances, we can still live good lives.
Rising Sun Chair, Independence Hall |
My Facebook friend Shawn Rogers wrote this prediction this
morning:
My final election prediction: This election will end. The sun
will come up on Wednesday, and again on Thursday. The consequences won't be as
horrible as the losing side thinks they will be. And the results won't be as
fantastic as the winning side thinks they will be. We'll have new political
battles to fight. But life will go on. Families will go on. Faith will go on.
Joy, hope, and happiness will still be within reach.
I think that we need a hopeful approach, for ourselves, our
families, and our communities, even when w have less hope for our country as a
whole. We need to live in gratitude, so that we can be guided to do what is best
to do with our lives.
A couple of weeks I read an outsider’s perspective I thought
was helpful. This is from Dan Hannan, a British conservative MEP:
Each presidential campaign thrives on fear of the other.
Trump’s supporters tell us that Clinton’s judicial nominations will
fundamentally transform America, tilting the balance toward authoritarianism.
Clinton’s supporters retort that Trump is a quasi-fascist.
Both sides misunderstand, or affect to misunderstand, the
Constitution. The United States was designed precisely to contain the ambitions
of its rulers. Jefferson and Hamilton had seen arbitrary rule first-hand, and
were determined to ensure that even the most Caligulan leader could not create
an autocracy. We might almost say that they had Trump, or someone very like
Trump, in mind when they drew up the rules.
Despite what Pelosi says, it is the Republican nominee who,
in the unlikely event of his election, would be likely to face impeachment.
There would be scant sympathy for President Trump in either House, and he seems
to have as little concern for constitutional propriety as he has for telling
the truth. Indeed, the only truly persuasive argument for electing him is the “Vote
Trump, Get Pence” line.
What, though, of Clinton? … Is there not a danger that, by
unbalancing the Supreme Court, she would transform the United States into an
altogether more nannying and dirigiste nation?
Again, the Founders had her number. Barring some truly
extraordinary electoral bouleversement, [Hillary] will not have a free hand in
her first two years; nor, given the usual pattern of mid-term elections, is
that likely to change in the second two years.
American liberty is too deeply rooted to be wrecked by a
couple of judges. Take the most commonly voiced concern among conservatives.
Suppose that a Clinton-made Supreme Court overturned the Heller verdict—that
is, the ruling that interprets the Second Amendment as meaning that an
individual can own and carry weapons.
The day after such a reversal would look just like the day
before it. No state constitution would be amended. No legislation would be
mandated at either federal or state level.
That’s what checks and balances mean: No president, no
Supreme Court, has absolute power. The system, you might say, works….
I've never known Americans to be as gloomy about politics as
now. And, looking at the two main candidates, I sympathize. But I can't bring
myself to share in their pessimism. The United States has lasted for as long as
it has, through foreign wars and civil strife, because the Constitution is
bigger than any politician….
America [is] the wealthiest and the freest, because its
system of government elevates the individual over the collective.
No single president, however demented, can undo the work of
two-and-a-half centuries. That’s the true meaning of American exceptionalism.
It may be that he is right. It may be that, even with the
most dire predictions, our lives will still go on, for the most part as before,
albeit with more weight upon our shoulders as we go about the work of living.
But we can go on living. We’re still in a land of great
freedom and prosperity, compared to most of world history. And we must enjoy
whatever good we have, so that we know not to let that good be taken.
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