Monday, December 20, 2021

Hosanna! and Hallelujah!

We’re just days now before Christmas day—which is more than a day, but a whole season that we celebrate. I want to celebrate here as part of that.


The lowly manger was probably not wood, but stone, similar to 
a sacrificial altar. This is a screenshot from near the end of this video, shown
in full below. The video ends with words over this image:
"Jesus of Nazareth... went about doing good. (Acts 10:38) This Christmas season, so can you."

I have a pretty good collection of nativities, many tiny ones that can hang on the tree, a slightly larger olivewood one imported from Israel, a paper one, and many others. I have the other kinds of Christmas decorations as well, but the nativity scene has always been the underlying theme of my Christmas decorating and celebrating. For 30+ years we celebrated Christmas Eve by acting out a nativity play that I wrote, using mostly scriptures, back when middle son, referred to here as Economic Sphere, played the newborn baby and son Political Sphere was a shepherd. The birth of Jesus Christ is the part of Christmas that gives us “reason for the season.”


We've been using grandkids to depict the nativity for our Christmas cards
ever since the first of them was born. This year we included our dogs to help
keep watch over the flocks by night.

But this is more than a birthday celebration. We celebrate this birthday because of the life this baby grew up to live. He became the greatest teacher the world has ever known, without writing those teachings down himself—no books, no lectures. We have other people’s records of what He taught. And in translation, because he spoke Aramaic, a language that wasn’t widely spoken around the world even in His day. His Sermon on the Mount is pivotal, containing the Beatitudes, the Lord’s Prayer, guidance about controlling our thoughts and being a light to others. His words lead us to thriving civilization—a happy life.

But He was more than a great teacher. In fact, if He was merely a great teacher and not more, then much of His teaching would not even be true. No, He was much more than a person who taught helpful words. He also taught us by the way He lived—loving everyone, every sinner, but never condoning the sin. Rather, He loved by inviting every person to become better, following in His way, which was completely without sin.

And then there were the miracles. So many miracles, with so many people testifying of them. Regular people, who were astonished and amazed—and blessed by these miracles personally.

And there was more. There was the suffering in Gethsemane and on the cross. He died, the sacrificial unblemished lamb, to atone for our sins, to rescue us from this fallen world.


Depiction of Mary and new baby Jesus from the video
"The Christ Child: A Nativity Story." Screenshot from here.


Still, we honor Him for more than His death on the cross. Even the thieves did that. It was what happened on the third day—the resurrection. He conquered death! He conquered the physical death that separated the body from the spirit, leading the way for us to be resurrected as well, to live again as He lives. And He conquered our separation from God that happened with the fall, which we as sinful mortals can’t overcome on our own, because no unclean thing can dwell in the presence of God. He makes it possible for us to become clean before God.

It is because of Easter Sunday that we celebrate Christmas Eve in the manger.

There are some beautiful depictions of the story.

There is this one presented by The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints: “The Christ Child: A Nativity Story.” In full length it’s about 17 minutes long. If you stay to the last part, you get to see a beautiful depiction of the wise men coming to see a growing baby Jesus, a toddler by that point. The awe on the face of the main wise man is an image for the season.


 

I have loved watching The Chosen the last couple of seasons. I love seeing the people come to life for us, possibly in the way they actually were, or maybe not, but at least we can see they were human beings who really lived and breathed. It’s been beautifully engaging, and I think it is helping to spread Christ’s message to the world. This past week we went to the theater to see The Chosen Christmas special, which is now available streaming online on various platforms, including YouTube.

Embedded within the special is a new episode of The Chosen. Some fifteen years after the death and resurrection of Christ, Mother Mary is recalling her memories and collecting them to pass along to Luke, who is in the process of writing them. We see the two time periods. One of the things she adds is her psalm that starts, “My soul doth magnify my Lord.” [As an aside, there’s a depiction of this in song, as part of The Redeemer, an oratorio by Tabernacle organist Robert Cundick, sung as a solo depicting Mary. I was in the choir for the original performance of The Redeemer, in college, back in 1978. I’ve always loved this song, although I find it impossible to sing. You can see the Tabernacle Choir performance here.] 

The Chosen’s depiction of the nativity uses the same film set as the one above. The Chosen borrows the Jerusalem/Bethlehem set, built in rural Utah by the Church for videos about Christ’s life. You may not be aware of some similarities between Utah and Israel. They are both somewhat mountainous and also desert, with many areas of grassland, brush, and not much thick vegetation. There’s a freshwater lake (Galilee in Israel, Utah Lake in Utah) that flows by way of a river (the River Jordan in Israel, the purposely named Jordan River in Utah) into a landlocked dead saltwater sea (the Dead Sea in Israel, the Great Salt Lake in Utah). Utah is, of course, larger by far than Israel and has a larger variety of features, including high mountains with snow and pines and granite—or even more barren areas with red rock formations. But this central area is a pretty good stand-in for Israel in films. 


Depiction of Mary and new baby Jesus from "The Messengers,"
and episode of The Chosen, within their Christmas special. 
Screenshot from here.

There is another important part of the Christmas story, the part that fulfills prophecy from ancient times—from Isaiah, Daniel, Jeremiah, Malachi, Micah, and even words among the Psalms and other ancient scriptures. It is the news that He will come again. And many of us are wondering if this long-foretold event will happen in our day. I hope so. I would like to believe that the evils we are seeing in our day are not just a run-of-the-mill evil, but the evils we’re told to expect before His rescue of us.

I learned recently that one meaning of the word Hosanna is a call to come and rescue, to deliver us. So, as I read the news, I frequently say, aloud to the Lord, “Hosanna!” Come! Rescue us! And let it be soon!

If it is not in my lifetime, then still that day will come. And by then I will have seen Him again.

As you take time this Christmas season to celebrate the birth of our Savior, take time to call Hosannah, to call Him to save us all, and sing Hallelujah—praise and give thanks to the Lord. He is so very worth celebrating. And the best way, beyond food and decorations and even family gathering, is to follow Him every day.

Tuesday, December 14, 2021

Coming to a Fortunate End

It’s only slightly premature to say the pandemic is ending. From the data we have so far, much of it from South Africa, the Omicron variant is more contagious than the Delta variant, or other variants, and is therefore likely to overtake the others and become the dominant strain. That is likely to happen in the UK in the next couple of weeks, and in the US shortly after that, and definitely within the next couple of months.

The good news is that it is very mild. There are very few hospitalized cases. About 90% of those hospitalized were incidental, meaning the patient was in the hospital for some other reason when a standard test for COVID-19 showed up positive. Of patients on ventilators, all were on ventilators for some other reason; the Omicron variant of SARS-COV-2 did not cause the need for oxygen. There have, as of this writing, been zero deaths attributable to the Omicron variant.

The Omicron variant seems to be less transmissible than the Delta variant—around R-2.5, rather than R-5. Yet it does seem to be overtaking Delta in populations. The reason seems to be that it has a greater affinity for binding with the ACE-2 receptor. If Omicron and Delta were in the same body, but Omicron gets into a particular cell before the Delta, the Delta has to look elsewhere—like a game of musical chairs—or it gets killed off by the body’s immune system. Omicron seems to be winning the game.

If Omicron continues to evidence less virulence, that is a good thing.


Dr. Mobeen Syed illustrates Omicron's doing damage to Big Pharma
screenshot from here

Doctors are starting to speculate that this could mean the end of the pandemic. In a similar way to how the Spanish Influenza pandemic of a century ago went, there was a bad first year followed by an even worse second year, followed by much milder forms, eventually moving into the endemic background illness that it continues to be. That could be the trajectory for SARS-COV-2.

Here are some sources:

·       WHO: No Deaths Reported as a Result of Omicron Variant to Date” Nathan Worcester for The Epoch Times, December 10 (updated December 12), 2021. 

·       Omicron Could Be Natural Vaccine for Unvaccinated—Prof. Eleanor Riley (University of Edinburgh)” Dr. Mobeen Syed discusses a UK study on his DrBeen Medical Lectures podcast December 11, 2021.  He shows why using a model for Delta looks alarming, but if Omicron is truly less virulent, that fear is unwarranted.

·       Omicron Helping Wind-down the Pandemic—Netcare Report from South Africa” Dr. Mobeen Syed on his DrBeen Medical Lectures podcast, December 11, 2021.  He states his opinion that the pandemic is winding down, thanks to the Omicron variant.

·       Good Fortune with Omicron” Dr. John Campbell on his podcast, December 11, 2021.  He talks about current data on the virus in South Africa and the UK. He also goes over the Eleanor Riley piece that Dr. Mobeen covered.

Dr. Campbell says, in that last one,

It’s not because humans have been particularly clever. It’s not because the vaccines have been so successful that it’s eradicated the infection. It’s not because the lockdowns have worked. It’s not because we’ve been so clever. We are just fortunate that this massively communicable variant that is going to bring about huge amounts of herd immunity is doing so at the cost of absolutely minimal disease. Humanity has been indeed fortunate.”

And then he adds, “It’s almost as if there’s corrective systems looking after us. I don’t know how much philosophy or emotion to put into this, but this could have been bad….” And “Palpable relief here.” He stops just short of calling it a miraculous turn of events.

As with many other things about this virus, however, there are unanswered puzzling questions.

Evolutionary biologists Bret Weinstein and wife Heather Heying discuss a great many things on their podcasts. And they typically think of themselves as liberal. But this past couple of years of pandemic, they have commented frequently on the biology of the disease as well as the authoritarian response—in a way that has been getting them labeled as conservative. This past week Weinstein was commenting on the evolution of the Omicron variant. They are asked by a follower this question:

Q: Can you steel man the arguments for the various ways Omicron might have evolved from 2020 without being noticed by the medical community that has been sequencing as many variants as they find? To the naïve, “engineered” seems like a possibility. But I would like to hear other natural evolutionary solutions to the problem.

The answer, in short, is that there are too many strange things about this variant, from an evolutionary biological perspective, specifically from a phylogentic systematics perspective, which they explain. Briefly that has to do with the genetic inheritance tree of a thing, in this case a virus. They show a time-lapse animation of the phylogeny of the different strains, from someone else’s work. Here’s the discussion from that point; I’ve highlighted some key sentences:

Bret Weinstein: So, these are all the variants that are being tracked. And the line—

Heather Heying: What’s the X? I mean the X axis is presumably time, so when does it start? What’s the left most—?

BW: Zach will have to read it. I think it’s like mid-2020, or maybe it’s early 2020. (responds to technician off screen). 2019. Yeah. OK, OK. So it starts right at the beginning of the sort of named pandemic. And what you have are all of the variants and their relationships as deduced by their sequence differences. And what you saw is that Omicron pops up without any history of connection to the rest of the swarm, as if it came about somewhere March through September of 2020.

HH: 2020?

BW: Yes. So it—

HH: Not 2021? Omicron? 2020?

BW: No. It shows up in 2021; but the point is, its relationship is as if it has been frozen in time at a much earlier state and then shows up.


I looked up the chart used in the DarkHorse podcast and found it here.
I added arrows to show the beginning and current day points of the Omicron variant.


Now, the thing is, this has people over in lab leak world fascinated, because this is not the first time in history that this has happened. In fact there’s a very famous example that you may have just barely heard mentioned in the lab leak discussion about the flu of 1977. And the flu of 1977, it has been concluded—this of course could be revised if some better model emerged that was more predictive or assumed less—but, it has been concluded, for now, and with substantial evidence, is actually a lab escapee. And the way we know that is that its closest relative dates back to 1949. So it vanished from the world, and then the clock started again on its evolution in 1977. So that indicated this surely was in a fridge somewhere or isolated from the world. Whatever was happening with it, effectively time was stopped, and that effectively requires a refrigerator.

HH: In an organism or a virus that does not have extraordinarily variable mutation rates, you would not, you could not possibly expect a—whatever that would have been—a 28-year hiatus with no changes.

BW: Right. And so, the other example which we have of this, which isn’t as good, because we don’t really have a good ancestor, right, is SARS-COV-2 itself, where we suddenly have a virus that’s very very good at doing the things a virus needs to do in order to become a human pandemic, with no history of circulating in another animal where it learned those tricks, no history of circulating in some population of humans, as far as we can tell, somewhere. It just— It’s a genius right off— It’s like a child that was born speaking three languages or something, you know.

And so, anyway, this has people who are paying attention to this thinking very carefully about what could even explain this other than its having been somewhere in someone’s lab during the period of time that we would have expected it to emerge and then suddenly popping back up.

And there are other anomalies too, like things like the non-synonymous to synonymous mutation rate is way off of normal. It’s like 25 to 1. So, this is about how many alterations that have no consequence for actual protein sequence you would expect for every one that has an actual consequence, and the number appears impossible through a normal process.

Heather Heying and Bret Weinstein
screenshot from here

Now, what the discord server [person who posed the question] has asked us to answer is the question of, well—

HH: Could it be, you know, what might explain this variant with this many changes appearing so suddenly, given a supposed background rate of so many people checking all the time for variants?

BW: Right. And so, what I think we should do, rather than search the world for crazy explanations, is just identify one— So, you’ve heard things like “immunocompromised person” in which much more evolution took place than normal, because their immunocompromised state effectively created a gain-of-function environment, a serial passage environment between tissues that was extremely favorable to variants. Now this doesn’t make a lot of sense to me, because— And, in fact I think the idea— So, it was originally reported that it had been isolated from somebody with HIV and diagnosed HIV; I believe that that has been debunked—although who even knows what debunked means in 2021.

But, nonetheless, these kinds of explanations have been offered before. In fact, there was one quite good paper—I thought it was dead wrong, but quite good paper—that argued that it could be that SARS-COV-2 experienced extreme evolutionary change in one of the miners who got sick in Yunnan Province, because lungs have such a large surface area.

HH: Back in 2013.

BW: Yeah. It was a very clever argument. Again, I think it’s dead wrong. But, anyway, it’s at least the kind of thought you would want to have. How could you get more evolution than you expect, right? Maybe surface area is the answer.

HH: Well, at least in that case, it— You can track the story evolutionarily. Like, the logic—each logical step is plausible, even if one or more of them may be so unlikely as for it not to have happened. So many of these stories that are charted, these explanations that are thrown out at the masses, and then the guy in effectively the white lab coat steps out to say, “I know you can’t follow this, so let me just tell you, the conclusion is...” actually just don’t even logically hold together. And we’ve sort of stopped, you and I have stopped largely on here even saying, “Oh, this thing, except it doesn’t make sense. And this thing, except it doesn’t make sense,” because it’s just coming so fast and furious. Like this— I don’t, on the face of it, the idea that immunocompromised creates gain-of-function in a body—I don’t know why that would be true. I have yet to hear the explanation for how you get from a to b. That’s just a simple a to b. Spell it out.

BW: Well, the idea, to the extent it is an idea rather than excuse, is, in the immunocompromised body, the defenses that would ordinarily silence lots of evolutionary experiments in the body tolerates them. Right? Something like that. And so you have— It’s like a big population in which processes that wouldn’t make any headway, in a small population gets a chance.

HH: So if that is true, you would expect that immunocompromised people would tend to be incubators of lots of variations in colds, other coronaviruses, or flus, or, you know any of the other things—

BW: It makes other predictions. And frankly, I don’t know whether any of those predictions are manifest.

HH: Right. That’s how you would actually follow this up with a scientific approach.

BW: The other thing would be—OK, so let’s say that this is true in the immunocompromised person and you get lots of evolution of little—you know, there are lots of foothills in the immunocompromised person that don’t exist in people with a fully competent immune system. But then, when the variant gets out into people who do have a fully competent immune system, you wouldn’t expect those variations to function very well, unless—

HH: If they only got a foothold because of immune suppression—

BW: Right. So then you would need another step to the process. And the point is, this is where you start running afoul of Occam’s razor. You’re not just hypothesizing an immunocompromised person, which provides a unique environment; you’ve got another black box that you need to fill. And at some point, it’s too many epicycles to be sustained.

So, I just want to point out, the other thing that we talked about last week that fits this category is, why did COVID-19 collapse in Japan, oh yes, after they allowed doctors to prescribe Ivermectin? And the answer was, “Oh, it became mutationally aggressive and lost its coherence.”

HH: It just did so well that it failed.

BW: Right. Something. And so the answer is, No, you need at least one more factor. You know what one factor could do it? Ivermectin could drive a virus to make some sort of a deal that it couldn’t sustain. But you can’t do it with just spontaneous mutational idiocy.

Bret Weinstein Twitter Thread
December 12, 2021

The summary of this is,

·       The Omicron variant’s history traces back to mid-2020, but it didn’t appear until November 2021. It’s as though it was kept in a lab refrigerator for a year and some months.

·       Also, it has a mutation rate that is impossible under normal processes.

·       The explanation about it being naturally developed in an immunocompromised person doesn’t hold up.

So, if you ask these evolutionary biologists, who have looked at the data and charted the history of the disease, this variant didn’t just happen naturally.

I’ve wondered about deus ex machina. Are we at a point where God has intervened and purposely altered the genetics of a worldwide plague? I’m not ruling that out; I tend to see His hand, whatever is happening.

But I am asking this additional question: If someone had a variant in mid-2020 that would be both mild and highly communicable—so that it would quickly end the pandemic through herd immunity and giTwitve people natural immunity for the future—why would such a person hold back, allowing another year’s worth of deaths to occur, before bringing it out?

And another question: Why, if the data shows this variant is likely to end the pandemic, is there so much panic and continued push to take a vaccine not designed to help against this variant, even pushing the vaccine onto children, who have always been at extremely low risk of serious illness from any variant of SARS-COV-2?

All versions of this illness have been highly treatable when dealt with early, using typically low-cost medicines and supplements. It looks like ease of treatment—or lowered need for any treatment—is nigh. As those who claim to be science keep saying while not showing any evidence of science, “Follow the science.” When you actually do that, you’ll notice that there was never any need for the vaccines, or mandates of any kind, or lockdowns. This has been a plague of authoritarians. Let us hope someone who has the power to hold off solutions for well over a year does not also have the power to spring an even more lethal virus upon the oh-too-trusting world.

Here are a few more interesting references: 

  • Omicron on the Move” Dr. Peter McCullough on The McCullough Report podcast of December 6, 2021. 

  • Ivermectin in Japan” Dr. John Campbell on his podcast, November 23, 2021. He shows the data that seems to show cases plummeting in Japan 12 days after Ivermectin was allowed openly as a treatment. News outlets seem to be assuming this is mere coincidence. 

  • “UK, 50% Omicron Now” Dr. John Campbell on his podcast, December 13, 2021. https://youtu.be/XzrG3Odgf28 While noting the sharp rise in cases in the UK (and where the UK is today, the US is likely to be in January), he offers update from South Africa, where they have passed three weeks, showing only mild cases, recovery in 3-5 days, regardless of age or vaccine status; there isn’t a later cytokine storm, as some feared might come.

Monday, December 6, 2021

The Right Questions to Get the Right Stuff

We just got past an election a month ago. It was an off-year election, but here we had a very important school board problem to take care of. That took a lot of energy to accomplish. But now, before we even have time to breathe and enjoy the holidays, the primary election season is upon us.

In a primary election, you get to choose who your candidates will be to represent your party. In some cases, when an area is strong in your party, say R+7 or so (meaning Republicans, based on past voting history, are expected to win by 7 percentage points), then what you’re likely doing in the primary is choosing your next representative, because the November election will be mostly a formality.



That’s the situation for our congressional race. Texas got two new congressional seats following the US census. One of them plopped down in Houston, and that affected my area. I’m now part of the new CD 38. There are eight Republican candidates. We heard from seven of them in a forum last Wednesday evening, for precinct chairs and their invited volunteers. We’ll have another forum two weeks later, in a larger place for all interested Republican voters. We heard from several candidates at our November Tea Party meeting, and we’re hearing from several more this month. I haven’t committed yet, but I’m leaning toward a candidate, someone I know well, who is very knowledgeable about the Constitution and conservative principles. I believe that’s what we need. I’m resistant to some higher-level party apparatus that is pushing a candidate who has not yet connected with the grassroots.

Another important race is the Harris County Judge position. In larger counties like ours, the County Judge is an administrative position. They work with the Commissioners Court to decide on policy and budget decisions. The County Judge we have now got in three years ago, when there was a huge amount of outside money supporting the Beto O’Rourke campaign for Senate, which fortunately failed against Ted Cruz. But the money did have the ability to tip the scales in Harris County, which had been 50-50 Democrat-Republican for some time and has crept slightly more Democratic the past few years. The County Judge, Lina Hidalgo, was elected as a 27-year-old without job experience. Harris County is maybe the second largest such local government entity in the US, with more than four million people. Hidalgo has been both incompetent and corrupt.

There are four Republican candidates in this race, and we should hear from all of them at this month’s Tea Party meeting.

We precinct chairs are hoping we can make our decisions in these races early, so we have campaign time before the March 1st election.

In this effort to vet and choose candidates, we ask a lot of questions. Most of the time we only get a few minutes of speech plus a brief Q&A for each candidate, which is why we need multiple forums. There’s a group in Northwest Harris County that does a questionnaire as well, so I look forward to seeing that.

In the meantime, I’ve been thinking about the kinds of questions I’d like to ask. Some questions must deal with the particular duties of the job being sought. But some things are more principle based. And, particularly for the US Congress seat, understanding the Constitution—and loving it—is essential.

There are people who see politics, and campaigns, as a sort of sport. I do not. I see it as a serious duty for citizens to govern themselves. I want the best representation we can get. And I believe this is more urgent today than it has ever been. In each race, we need the best person to win, for all our sakes. Maybe asking the right questions will help us find the people with the right stuff.

Back in 2013, another off-election year after a presidential election year, I wrote a series of questions, based on the Spherical Model, with questions related to the Political, Economic, and Social Spheres. I find that these are still useful. There are a few issue-related questions I included in that post. So I’m repeating all of those, and then adding a few that seem relevant today. Feel free to ask these of any candidates you get a chance to talk to.


Political Sphere

·       What do you believe is the proper role of government, and what are the limits?

·       Do you have favorite portions of the US Constitution, and/or any portions that you think ought to be changed, clarified, or improved?

·       When the US Supreme Court makes a ruling that you believe is at odds with the Constitution, what do you think the executive and/or legislative branches should do in response to the ruling?

·       What do you believe is the proper balance between public safety and individual freedom, and what do you believe government needs to do to reach that balance?

·       Who are your favorite examples of a good president—since 1900—and what about them do you admire?

·       How do you define extremists, and what views do you think are examples of extreme?

 

Economic Sphere

·       What do you believe is the optimum percentage of GNP that should be taken in taxes?

·       What do you believe is the government’s role in contributing to economic health? For example, if there is a sudden recession (as we were hit with in 2008), how should government react?

·       What do you believe is government’s role in the distribution of income when there’s a wide discrepancy between the poor and the wealthy?

·       What do you believe should be government’s role in charitable help to the poor and suffering?

·       What do you believe are the purposes and limits of the commerce clause of the Constitution?

·       What do you believe is the role of the Federal Reserve, and how/whether it is benefiting the economy?

 

Civilization Sphere

 

·       What do you believe about the connection between moral values and the law?

·       Which institution is most responsible for raising a generation that will benefit society, and why: schools, government, churches, nonprofit organizations, sports teams, families?

·       Which constituency’s desires is public education best accountable to, and why: US government, state government, local government, teachers, students, parents/taxpayers?

·       What do you believe should be government’s role in homeschooling, private schools, charter schools, and school choice?

·       What do you think is government’s role in defining marriage, and why? 

 

Specific Issue Questions

·       What are your feelings concerning Obamacare, and what do you think should be done?

·       What do you believe are the motivations of people who support traditional (man/woman) marriage and family?

·       What are your beliefs about border security and immigration?

·       What do you believe is the proper role of government concerning climate?

·       What do you see as the US role in the world, and what is your view of the UN?

·       What are your opinions on national debt, national deficit, tax increases and/or cuts, and national budget?

 

New Questions This Year

·       It is likely that the Supreme Court will overturn Roe v. Wade this year. How do you see Texas and the United States moving forward on this issue?

·       In the Declaration of Independence, we dissolved political bands, not for “light and transient causes,” but for a “long train of abuses and usurpations.” Assuming that restoring and preserving our Constitution is the goal, could there be a catalyst for dissolving political bands, intended to be indivisible, and returning Texas to an independent nation? What would trigger such an action after the long train of abuses and usurpations we’re already seeing?

·       One of the actual responsibilities of the federal government is protection of our national borders. When the federal government fails in that duty, what should our state do to protect our sovereignty?

·       When the government deprives a person of property, such as a business, as it did during the pandemic shutdowns, what is the government’s obligation to restore that property to those who were deprived of it?

·       Is there anything that can/should be done about election law crimes of the past election? And what do you see as the way to restore election integrity going forward?

·       While conservatives generally support freedom for business, what can/should we do when large monopolies censor certain points of view on their platforms, or companies make requirements for employment or attendance based on private health decisions?


Thursday, December 2, 2021

Much Power of Speech

There are a series of bad guys in the Book of Mormon, many of them lawyers, who were described as having “a perfect knowledge of the language of the people,” or “learned in all the arts and cunning of the people,” or being “expert” with “much power of speech.” (See Alma 10: 14-15, 26; Alma11:21; Jacob 7:4). This has concerned me, since language, power of using words, is what I’m trained to do. And I know a lot of lawyers, including my son, that I don’t believe fit this bad-guy category.

So language skill in itself is not bad. It’s using it to persuade people to believe what is wrong that is the problem.


US Supreme Court Building
screenshot from
C-SPAN

We saw some of these “experts,” these “much power of speech” types during oral arguments before the Supreme Court on December 1st, related to the abortion case Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization. This is Mississippi’s prohibition of abortions after 15 weeks.

I’m glad the cast of people in Court Wednesday included good guys with “much power of speech” as well. The full cast included the lawyer defending the Mississippi law, Mississippi’s Solicitor General, Scott Stewart. And there were two lawyers on the side against the law, U.S. Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar, meaning the Biden administration was on that side; and Julie Rikelman, attorney for the Center for Reproductive Rights, the plaintiffs claiming the law infringes on their rights. There were also the nine justices, whose job was to listen to arguments and ask relevant questions.

 

Lecturing Is Not Asking Relevant Questions

Almost out of the gate Justice Breyer spends his time lecturing Mississippi’s Solicitor General—and his fellow justices, and us listening, on the need to read more thoroughly, as he implies he has, section 505 U.S. 854 to 869. And then his question is, “What do you say to that?” The issue he’s getting at has to do with stare decisis; under what conditions can a prior case be overruled. Because this case has the possibility of overturning the Roe and Casey cases. But he’s asking the question in a way that says, “You’d better see it my way or else.” He’s not open to information.

The justices often give hints about their upcoming opinions in the questions they ask. They have already read the briefs from the plaintiffs and defense, plus any amici briefs that may be supporting either side. But oral arguments are for the presenters to make clarifications to the Court, not the other way around. Sotomayor does some similar lecturing later as well.


The nine Supreme Court Justices
screenshot from C-SPAN

The defense was, I thought, adequate. But Scott Stewart was not as smooth and stellar as I would have hoped. Still, the meat is in the briefs.

The two female lawyers on the other side were both very sharp, well prepared, calm, and businesslike. And wrong. How do you know such a person “with a perfect knowledge of the language of the people,” who is “expert” in doing their lawyering—how do you know such a person is wrong? You tune in to what you know is truth, and then notice when they depart from that.

 

Where in the Constitution?

Mississippi Solicitor General Scott Stewart
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The key point of the law’s defense is that Roe and Casey invented a right that does not exist in the text of the Constitution. They made it up. They did it in such a way as to stop debate and prevent states from making their laws as they see fit. And now that we have 50 years of experience and more medical and scientific information about the life of the unborn, we must take that into consideration. It’s time to rethink those cases and allow states to make the determination.

Justice Thomas was clearly on that line of thinking when he asked US Solicitor General Julie Rikelman, “I know your interest here is in abortion. I understand that. But if I were to ask you what constitutional right protects the right to abortion, is it privacy? Is it autonomy? What would it be?”

She doesn’t claim either privacy or bodily autonomy, as previous abortion cases have done. She says it’s “liberty,” based on the 14th Amendment. A state can’t deprive a person of liberty without due process of law. Liberty is a word she’s defining way too loosely here. It means being free to move about, to not be confined in prison, in jail, in some institution, or maybe in your home under court order. You don’t lose your right to liberty without due process. In other words, by being found guilty in a court of law of a crime for which the punishment is a loss of liberty. Lockdown orders during the pandemic could qualify as being deprived of liberty without due process of law, if you want another context.

Rikelman says, “The Court has defined liberty as autonomy, including the right to end a pre-viability pregnancy.” She doesn’t explain why the Court defined liberty that way.

She is saying that pregnancy equals a loss of liberty. And that the requiring of a pregnant woman to continue carrying a pregnancy for additional weeks is depriving her of liberty. So, is pregnancy equivalent to a jail sentence? Is it punishment, as Obama once called it? And, if you’re warped enough to say yes, is it a punishment inflicted on the woman by the government rather than by her own actions, and therefore something the government ought to be responsible for alleviating her from suffering?

Plaintiff's Attorney Julie Rikelman
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The loss of liberty, Rikelman explains to us, is the limit of being able to work or do other things one would do—if one were, say, a man, who doesn’t get pregnant.

So, this argument for abortion is saying that living life as a woman is inferior to living life as a man, because of the things that are uniquely feminine but that may limit pursuing things like a career or education (although, if you look at Justice Amy Coney-Barrett, you might wonder at the assumption of limitation). And we as a society are required to compensate women somehow for being women. And the required compensation they’re asking for is the right to kill their offspring—after they’ve engaged in the sexual act that brought about the pregnancy.

Whatever court decided women were disadvantaged by being women—not by how they were treated in hiring practices, or in human interactions, but by simply being women—ought to explain that misogyny.

Since they can’t explain it, their rulings are ripe for overturning.

 

Overturning

In the discussion, Kavanaugh seemed to imply that the Court has often overturned previous opinions, and he listed several. He seemed to think returning the Court to neutral might be a goal. Following this line of thinking about when/if a case could be overturned, Alito had a satisfying moment when he put the US Solicitor General Prelogar in the uncomfortable position of defending Plessy v. Ferguson, a case that sustained racism. Alito asks:

Alito: Suppose Plessy v. Ferguson was reargued in 1897, so nothing had changed, would it not be sufficient to say, that was an egregiously wrong decision on the day it was handed down and now it should be overruled?

Prelogar: It certainly was egregiously wrong on the day it was handed down, Plessy. But what the Court said in analyzing Plessy to Brown and Casey is that what had become clear is this idea that segregation didn't create a badge of inferiority had been entirely mistaken—

Alito: Is it your answer that we needed all the experience between 1896 to 1954 to realize that Plessy was wrongly decided? Can you answer my question? Had it come before the court in 1897, should it have been overruled or not?

She tried to claim that it was wrong from the start, but it was not to be overruled for being wrong, but for being unworkable. But Alito points out that,

Alito: The south built up a whole society based on the idea of white supremacy. So there was a lot of reliance. It was improper reliance. It was reliance on an egregiously wrong, on what legal protection means. Your answer—I still don't have your answer clearly. Can a decision be overruled simply because it was erroneously wrong, even if nothing has changed between the time of that decision and the time when the court is called upon to consider whether it should be overruled, yes or no? Can you give me a yes-or-no answer on that?

Prelogar: This court, no, has never overruled in this situation based on a decision that it was wrong.

I think she loses on this point but was panicky enough about the possibility of the badly ruled Roe being overturned that she had to claim the Court couldn’t notice that it had previously ruled wrongly.

 

Undue Burden

One of the arguments was about whether the Mississippi law might cause an undue burden on women without enough money: “Not everybody can afford contraceptives, contrary to the—your adversary's brief. In fact, 19% of the women in Mississippi are uninsured, so they don't have money to pay for contraceptives.” This was Justice Sotomayor not actually asking a question but inappropriately offering up an argument for her pro-abortion side to use.

In his rebuttal at the end, Scott Stewart points out that, contrary to Sotomayor's belief, lack of insurance does not necessarily mean no contraceptives. Insurance can cost hundreds of dollars a month. I did a search online (hoping I don’t get tracked and then bombarded with ads), and contraceptive pills are easily available for about $25—hard to tell whether that was a 1-month or 3-month supply. Or condoms are readily available at any drug store, or Walmart, or gas station convenience store. The cost of an abortion, on the other hand, is at least $600 at Jackson Women's Health, plus loss of some days of work, plus any travel, if necessary. So, to say that abortion is the choice when you can’t afford contraceptives would be laughable—if it weren’t so grim.

 

Viability

US Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogar
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US Solicitor General Prelogar tried to argue that viability is the only hard and fast line we can use. Anything else leads to a slippery slope. She says, “Immediately states with six-week bans, eight-week bans and so on would seek to enforce those with no continued guidance on what the liberty interest is going forward.”

So a woman, she claims, has a liberty right not to carry a baby to term from 15 weeks on. But from viability on she doesn’t have that right? She gets asked this question. And, let’s be clear; we saw in the news a baby born at 17 weeks that is progressing and living life—having celebrated his first birthday. Viability used to be considered the third trimester, 26 weeks, but even 39 years ago, when I lost a premature baby born at just under 24 weeks, doctors had said there was a 1 in 8 chance of survival. And I have known babies born that early not long after that year who survived with no lasting problems.

So her argument about viability rings false for two reasons: one is that we don’t know when viability is, but we know it’s getting earlier and earlier as neonatal medical care advances; and another is that a woman doesn’t have a "right" at 15 weeks of pregnancy that she loses a few weeks later at some nebulous “viability” moment.

This viability question came up earlier, during Rikelman’s segment. Justice Alito asks:

On the other side, the fetus has an interest in having a life. And that doesn't change, does it, from the point before viability to the point after viability?

Rikelman ignores the interest of the fetus entirely and answers that by saying it is the line the Court decided on when balancing the state’s interest in the fetus and the woman’s interest in her right to liberty. Alito asks her to explain why viability is the chosen line:

Alito: What is the philosophical argument, the secular philosophical argument for saying that is the appropriate line? There are those who say the rights to personhood should be considered to have taken hold at a point when the fetus acquires certain independent characteristics. But viability is dependent on medical technology and medical practice. It has changed. It may continue to change.

Rikelman: No, your honor, it is principled, because in ordering the interests at stake the Court had to set a line between conception and birth, and it logically looked at the fetus's ability to survive separately as a lean line because it's subjectively verifiable and doesn't require the Court to resolve the philosophical issues at stake.

She’s wrong. It does change. It has changed, which was clear in Alito’s question.

 

Historical Argument

Earlier, during Rikelman’s testimony, she tries to make the case that there’s a long and glorious tradition of abortion historically:

Rikelman: There was a tradition under the common law for centuries of women being able to end their pregnancies. In addition, when it comes to decisions related to family, marriage, and childbearing the Court has done the analysis at a higher level of generality, and that makes sense because otherwise the Constitution would reinforce the historical discrimination against women.

She and Alito have an exchange over this. He wants to explore the history. She wants to gloss over that and concentrate on the Court’s overcoming historical discrimination against women.

Alito: You just mentioned the Common Law. Let me ask you a couple of questions about history. Did any state constitutional provision recognize that abortion was a right, liberty, or immunity in 1868 when the shareholder 14th Amendment was adopted?

Rikelman: No, your honor, but it had been allowed under the Common Law for many years.

Alito: Does any judicial decision at that time or shortly or immediately after 1868 recognize that abortion was a right, liberty, or immunity?

Rikelman: There were state high court decisions shortly before then, your honor, talking about the ability of women to end a pregnancy before quickening.

Alito: What's your best case?

Rikelman: For the right to end a pregnancy, your honor?

Alito: Mm-hmm.

Rikelman: Allowing a state to take control of a woman's body and force her to undergo the physical demands, risks, and life-altering consequences of pregnancy is a fundamental deprivation of her liberty. And once the court recognizes that that liberty interest deserves heightened protection, it does need to draw a workable line. And viability is a line that logically balances the interests at stake.

Note that she doesn’t answer the question; she turns back to one of her talking points. Evasion doesn’t work on Alito.

Alito: The brief for the American Historical Association says that abortion was not legal before quickening in 26 out of 37 states at the time when the 14th Amendment was adopted. Is that correct?

Rikelman: That is correct, because some of the states had started to discard the Common Law at that point because of a discriminatory view that a woman's proper role was as a wife and mother, a view that the Constitution now rejects. That's why it's now appropriate to do it at a higher level of generality. Again, at the founding women were able to end their pregnancy under the Common Law and in fact this Court in Glucksberg described Casey as based on tradition and at note 19 called out and relied on Roe's conclusion that tell of the founding and well into the 1800s, women had the ability to end a pregnancy.

This version of history strikes me as revisionist. I’ve lived long enough to know that the original Hippocratic Oath includes the phrase, “I will give no sort of medicine to any pregnant woman, with a view to destroy the child.” That’s been an understanding for doctors since ancient Greek times. The phrase wasn’t removed until around 1964. The 19th-Century novel Adam Bede, by female British author George Eliot, has a character who finds herself unwed and pregnant. In her effort to find the soldier who impregnated her and ask for help, she gives birth in the snow and barely gets herself to a house, where someone helps her recover; she had intended to return for the baby, but it is found dead before she recovers enough to do so. While there is some sympathy for her, she is nevertheless executed for causing the death of her baby. This was related to English Common Law, and the baby, while premature, was born alive, but the unwed pregnancy wasn’t even considered something to be lawfully terminated. But in John Steinbeck’s 1952 novel East of Eden, a cruel and wicked character causes herself an abortion; there is nothing but repugnance for the character in the book, and this is just another of the horrors she commits.

In other words, I don’t believe the founders or those living in most of the first two centuries since then—up until the 1960s—saw abortion as anything but savage. They were not seeking for ways to make it legal. They certainly weren’t looking to return to any previous “right” to abortion, as Rikelman implies.

So I did a fairly simple search.  Abortion was illegal in all 13 colonies at the time of the founding. According to J. Dellapenna in the article “The History of Abortion: Technology, Morality, and Law,” written in 1979 in the University of Pittsburgh Law Review, the colonies all referred to English Common Law, which they kept for an additional century. English Common Law forbade abortion, as you might guess. It had a two-level punishment: abortion prior to quickening was a misdemeanor, and after quickening was a felony. However, in the early 1800s, human biological science had progressed to understand that human life began not at quickening, but at fertilization. Based on this new knowledge, in 1869 the British Parliament passed the “Offenses Against the Persons Act,” which made any abortion after fertilization a felony. Based on that early 1800s science, each of the United States adjusted its law, removing the misdemeanor part, so that by 1860 the vast majority had new laws making abortion at any point after fertilization a felony.

So when Rikelman was saying the states were letting go of Common Law, that may be true, but only to clarify and firm the laws they saw fit to keep. When asked, she couldn’t remember the historical references used in Roe.

 

What Will Happen?

I don’t know what the Court will do. And I don’t know what sort of frenzy the pro-abortionists will carry out between now and then—with the help of a lying media. Overturning Roe v. Wade and Casey will not outlaw abortion; it will return the decision to the individual states. Several states, including Texas where I live, have a trigger law, meaning that at a point when Roe is ever overturned, that state outlaws abortion. States may differ in how they handle life/health of the mother or rape. But all of these states are next to or near enough to states that will likely go the other extreme—allowing abortion up to birth—so any woman who wants an abortion could travel to get one. Glenn Beck and Stu Burguiere discussed this and noted that the longest distance would be a 12-hour drive from southern Florida to North Carolina—or a two-hour plane trip costing less than the abortion itself. And pro-abortion “charities” will fund such trips.

So what seems clear is that any woman determined to get an abortion will still get one. The only way to get rid of abortion is to change people’s hearts. That’s what is most needed. And it might help to have much power of speech, the honest and true kind, on our side as well.