What I Think Happened

The thing I wanted to talk about today is old news, from a week ago. But it got made relevant again by yesterday’s impeachment. So I’d better buckle down and get this written.

Last week I got chastised by a friend for not coming out in opposition to the violence at the capitol on January 6^th. I wasn’t actually writing about that, but I thought I had said enough to show I was clearly against it, especially along with nearly a decade of writing—about how to have civilization. But the day after the event I didn’t have nearly enough information to write on that topic.

But I have, all along, been trying to understand what happened. More comes out daily, but I think I have enough grasp on it now for a post. A long one. Consider it next Monday’s post as well. That will be Martin Luther King Day, celebrating non-violence, which is the ultimate message of today’s post.

 

The Rally

the January 6th rally during President Trump's speech
screenshot from Right Side livestream

The purpose of last Wednesday’s rally at the capitol was to show how much support there was among the American people for counting only legal votes. The suppression of information about the evidence has caused a lot more disunity than hearing out the evidence would have done. My assumption about that is that, allowing the evidence to be heard would have made a Biden presidency untenable.

But the rally was in support of the legislature acting according to the Constitution to challenge the electors from some of the states in question—states whose state legislators had wanted to recall the chosen electors because of the many questions about fraud and anomalies they had been shown, but about which they felt prevented from acting on, because only their governors could call a special session to act on that business. In other words, there is a Constitutional process to deal with election issues that come up at this point in the process.

And it would be, finally, an opportunity for the general public to hear and see at least a portion of the evidence, unfiltered by a media dismissing it as discredited.

President Trump had a goal to get the evidence heard—and so did people supporting him and our Constitution.

There were roughly a million supporters at the capitol. They came to hear speakers—there were several in the morning, including Rudy Giuliani and John Eastman of the President’s legal team. And the President was scheduled to speak around noon, the hour prior to the 1:00 joint session of Congress. He arrived late to speak, and then spoke for a little over an hour. He went through some of the evidence he hoped to be presented.

President Donald Trump during his January 6th speech
screenshot from Right Side livestream

You can view his speech here. 

You can read the transcript here. 

I heard it mostly live, pausing the livestream in the middle of the speech for a meeting, and then returning to hear the rest on my drive home. I heard nothing earth-shattering. I heard nothing about taking any action other than walking over to the capitol (from where he was speaking, which was relatively close to the White House, 2.3 miles from the capitol building). People spread out beyond the Washington Monument, which is even further. Some no doubt spread toward the capitol, so they were closer.

 

The Capitol Breach

Twenty minutes before his speech ended, protesters breached the barricades around the capitol building, ostensibly set up to allow preparation for the January 20^th inauguration.

Elijah Schaffer, of The Blaze, was at that forefront, as media, and has video of the attack on those barricades. It looks bad. 

By the time the President finished speaking, the bad guys had breached the outer barricades and were attempting to enter the building.

By the time larger portions of the crowd arrived, the barricades were down, and there was no indicator for the people to stay away from the building.

Among people attempting to enter the building, the crowd was shouting “Antifa! Antifa! They’re not us!” People were trying to prevent them from breaking windows and entering, and were pushing those bad guys toward the police for capture.

Eventually at least one door was opened. One video shows a police officer being squashed against a wall, and it looks dangerous for him. Another video shows a door being opened, police officers standing against a wall and allowing people to enter.  One of those entering jokes that they’ll lock the door behind them, that it’s a trap.

What we’re seeing is a lot of mayhem, a lot of confusion. And a lot of blame.

 

No Incitement

Of the million people there, only a few hundred entered the capitol. Of the few hundred that entered the capitol, most entered only after the doors were opened; they were nonviolent, wandered through almost like tourists, and had nothing to do with breaking in or rioting. There were a few dozen violent offenders arrested. Out of a million.

There were additional speeches planned for the afternoon. They were canceled. The President made a short video telling people that, even though we believe the election was stolen, we need peace, and they need to go home. It was taken down by Twitter for violating community standards. He made another similar video later; it was taken down. Shortly thereafter his Twitter account was permanently deleted.

He had his Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany do a similar announcement, brief, taking no questions.

In the President’s rally speech, he says, “I know that everyone here will soon be marching over to the Capitol building to peacefully and patriotically make your voices heard.” That is not an incitement to do violence, clearly.

Robert H. Gruler, who does a law vlog,  for the word “fight.” It comes up 23 times in the speech—each time related to political argument. But, taking the paragraph containing the final three, suddenly we’re supposed to assume he meant physical altercation and rioting, when he said,

“And we fight. We fight like Hell and if you don’t fight like Hell, you’re not going to have a country anymore.”

About moving toward the capitol, near that part of the speech, he said,

So we’re going to, we’re going to walk down Pennsylvania Avenue—I love Pennsylvania Avenue—and we’re going to the Capitol and we’re going to try and give— The Democrats are hopeless. They’re never voting for anything, not even one vote. But we’re going to try and give our Republicans—the weak ones, because the strong ones don’t need any of our help—we’re going to try and give them the kind of pride and boldness that they need to take back our country.

In order to incite a riot, according to 18 USCS § 2102, a person would need to “organize, promote, encourage, participate in, or carry on a riot." Also, as I learned from one post, 

In Brandenburg v. Ohio, 395 U.S. 444 (1969), the US Supreme Court held that only express advocacy specifically directed at inciting imminent lawlessness falls outside First Amendment protections. Ambiguous or abstract speech, even if it can be construed as advocating violence, is protected.

Calling for peaceable assembly, calling for peace, calling for people to go home—and never even, not even once, encouraging violence, but actually insisting on peace—that’s not inciting violence. People who are accusing him of that are lying.

 

Agent Provocateurs

Were there people inciting violence? Clearly. We want to find out who.

There was suspicion of Antifa and BLM from the beginning. The fact that video and photos show individuals who have been active at Antifa and BLM events leads credence to that.

One report from a local person, our State Senate District chair, James Buntrock, a pastor, includes this:

We came together to support our president and to let him know he is not alone. We came to show that election integrity matters. My sincere hope was that legislators would see our immense crowds and feel emboldened to do the right thing: to delay certifying electors until fraud investigation is complete. Throughout the event, you could feel the love for our country. It was awe inspiring.

That aligns with the stated and understood goals of the event. All was peaceful during the entire rally—not even profanity. Then they walked to the capitol building, and he witnessed this:

We stood on the lawn of the Capitol in protest, continuing to pray, sing, chant and wave our signs and flags. I witnessed one individual on the Capitol steps beckoning others to join him. I saw a dozen or so people wearing dark clothing and light body armor advance in military fashion through the crowd inciting people to join them in “storming the Capitol”. These were likely some of the Antifa infiltrators that we had heard would be there, as the night before, we heard of busses of Antifa receiving police escorts into town.

I don’t know how to verify that Antifa were escorted into town. There are additional reports of people witnessing buses of Antifa arriving the night before. I expect there is video, but I haven’t seen it.

I don’t think we can entirely blame agent provocateurs; you also have to blame those who allow themselves to be provoked. But those are an estimated .01%, or 1 in 10,000. Painting all rally participants as rioters or insurrectionists is a blatant lie.

Robert Barnes, in the Sunday night Viva/Barnes livestream, suggests that it is the QAnon group, thinking somehow they’re helping. I’m not convinced. I’m not fully aware of Q stuff, but I have heard occasional periphery. Always it was about a military operation, all planned and underway. The only thing the public was ever asked to do was to spread the word and wait and watch what happens—not participate. Are there some wackos out there with some sort of hero delusion? It’s a big country, so probably.

Robert Gruler talks about the arrest and detainment of a man named Cleveland Grover Meredith, Jr. The media portrayed him as having a semiautomatic weapon and high capacity magazines, caught during the protest, attempting to assassinate Nancy Pelosi and others. But that is not actually what he’s charged with. He was traveling from Colorado the day of January 6^th. His phone records show he was in touch with people at the capitol (among agitators? quite possibly). Multiple times he said he was still 3 ½ hours away. He arrived in the evening—the legislators were back in session, because calm had already long been restored to the capitol building—and went straight to his hotel. The next day, January 7^th, he is charged with getting out of his vehicle, assaulting someone, without weapons, and then getting back in his vehicle and leaving. He has a history of marijuana use (legal in Colorado) and mental illness. I’m wondering if the mental illness is related to the marijuana use, because there is evidence it increases likelihood of schizophrenia. Anyway, the guy wasn’t at the capitol during the riots. He’s the only one I’m aware of named with having a weapon. It was with him, not used. And he wasn’t involved in the riots, but on a charge that on any other day would not make the news. He is being held without bond. Could he be considered a QAnon activist? Maybe. His friends he was in contact with who were there? Maybe. Maybe they are just more susceptible to agent provocateurs than the general patriotic protester.

There was evidence of pipe bombs, or IEDs. One was found at each of the Republican and Democrat Party headquarters, within blocks of the capitol. None was detonated. I hope the police are able to trace them to the perpetrators and hold them fully accountable.

I want to get back to agent provocateurs, or APs. There are two interesting interviews Joshua Philipp did with expert observers, which I saw Monday. Philipp himself was at the rally, but took a while moving from the rally to the capitol, walking and interviewing people in the crowd. He never saw any violence. Not even any mayhem—teargas, pepper spray, etc.—around the perimeter of the capitol. Incidentally, The Epoch Times did a number of interviews during their day-long livestream, which I wanted to review, but YouTube took it down, possibly because of length, so those interviews, if they are to be recovered for history, will have to be pieced together later. Anyway, people who had entered the House chambers, but claimed not to have been among the violent, told what they thought. Their language was profane. (I don’t understand loving America but calling it “f-ing America.”) They seemed proud of what they had done. They thought they had shown something to the powers threatening freedom. They seemed to be regular public, and Trump supporters, although about as different from me as I can imagine. I now think these were the people subject to the APs.

Back to Philipp’s interviews. The first is with a young woman named Masako Ganaha. She has taken footage from social media, showing video from the event, and looking at it from many angles. For the interview she is mostly focused on the Ashli Babbit incident—the unarmed woman, a veteran, shot by security. We see mainly three men breaking door windows to the room they’re trying to enter, the Speaker’s office lobby. One has a bat or stick to beat the glass. Another is pounding and shoving. Then the third one, wearing a bright yellow scarf, hands the middle one a helmet. This guy takes off his heavy winter cap and places it inside the helmet, cushioning his hand, using that to bash the window, which finally breaks. Ganaha notes that there seems to be coordination, communication, between the two. They are working together and seem to know each other.

It is after they break through that Ashli Babbit goes to step through the broken door window, and then she is shot, at close range, in the neck. There is no warning to her, no “Stop! Or I’ll shoot.” There is enough mayhem, I’m uncertain how we could have expected such a command. I’m not even sure where the shot came from. Inside? The doors appeared to be barricaded with chairs from the inside. (The Crossroads video didn’t show the actual shot, and her image was pixelated to avoid showing gore.)

Masako Ganaha points out that an agitator goes
partway down stairway and changes his appearance.
screenshot from here

Most people, immediately after the shot, turn their attention to Babbit. Police or medics are on scene immediately, and are working on her to save her. But a continuous angle of video shows the guy with the yellow scarf stepping back into the crowd, and another going halfway down the flight of stairs, pulling off his backpack and changing his shirt, and stuffing away the scarf. He then appears to be someone other than the one breaking down the door, and just someone on the outside of the crowd. This is an AP tactic.

There is one young black man, appearing later on mainstream media, named John Sullivan. He is a BLM activist, but he reports that he was only there to document and to come to understand Trump people, because we need understanding. He appears sympathetic. Ganaha shows in the video, however, that, while he is taking video of the altercation, as soon as Babbit is shot, while people are working on her and trying to save her, he is shouting, “She’s dead! They killed her!” in what she believes is an attempt to incite anger toward the police. This is before anyone could know whether Babbit was dead, and from his angle he certainly couldn’t know that; the people working on her blocked his view. Ganaha says this is also an AP tactic, to agitate against whoever they want to agitate against, in this case the capitol security police. And it is also an AP tactic to have one of them be the sympathetic character, going on media to create a narrative in their favor. (Sullivan was arrested today, in Utah.) 

John Sullivan, arrested Jan. 14, in Utah, for his
participation in the capitol riot on Jan. 6.
screenshot from Fox 13 News

The next of Philipp’s interviews I saw was with war correspondent Michael Yon, whom he had become acquainted with during unrest in Hong Kong. Yon is an expert in observing riots. He points out some of the things you can look for to see professional agitation coordination; he uses the term agent provocateur, or AP. If the group is small, maybe four people, they would know each other and not need identifiers. But if there are more, and they aren’t familiar to each other, then you might see that they have similar shoes; and they don’t change their shoes when they change clothing appearance, because extra shoes would be hard to carry, and nobody looks at them anyway. So that’s something to look for.

And one of the tactics that he had seen before only in Hong Kong was a coordinated technique of calling for what they need: “Send up masks,” “Send up water,” etc. That was happening at the capitol. It shows they were professional agitators, not an incited crowd.

He noted that, at such an event, susceptible people are looking for direction, looking for a leader. Whoever has a megaphone, the loudest voice, gets followed. APs know how to do this, to gather others to do what they want them to do. It works.

He pointed out that there is a difference between these US APs and those in Hong Kong. In Hong Kong they had the moral high ground and wanted to maintain that, so they made sure no one looted, stole, injured innocents, or did property damage. Antifa, BLM, and any other APs here not only don’t care about the moral high ground, they want to make it look like those they are involving look bad.

 

Possible Advanced Knowledge

It would be nice to know whether those buses of activists were actually escorted by police, meaning they were known and welcomed. There is a fair amount of confusion surrounding the lack of security. Capitol Police Chief Steven Sund, who resigned right after the event, revealed that he had asked for additional security multiple times, days ahead of the event. Refusal came, possibly from as high as Nancy Pelosi’s office.

Once the event was underway, Sund asked for National Guard help and was refused. This is odd since, during the morning speeches, the Chiron on the Right Side livestream tells us National Guard troops were activated for the protest. Confusion surrounded that. MSM claimed the President blocked them from going. In reality, the troops said they couldn’t be deployed without an order; as soon as the President learned of it, he gave the go ahead, possibly even against advice surrounding him. Troops are now on scene and will be until several days after inauguration.

The FBI had claimed that they had no notice of any planned violence ahead of time. Mark Levin reported yesterday that they did have credible evidence at least 24 hours ahead of time. One major news story wrote about the violence hours ahead of it happening and had to retract it. MSM wishful thinking? Planted narrative? Why did the FBI lie about what they knew?

 

Casualties

A civil war has not broken out; as they say, “What if they hold a war and nobody comes?” Real patriots aren’t participating in any such war. But the other side is certainly trying to provoke one.

During this skirmish at the capitol—a tragic event—there were casualties, five deaths. The MSM narrative makes it sound like Trump supporters murdered five people in their lawless rioting. Not exactly. One death was Ashli Babbit, unarmed, killed by police. I don’t know much of her background, but she was inside, with an advanced group that was doing damage; she put herself into an outlaw position, although she was not guilty of the death penalty, in my opinion. A second death was an officer beaten in the head with a fire extinguisher, who died later. There are questions surrounding his death, but I’m willing to accept that narrative; if accurate, I hope they find his murderer and convict him. The other three are listed as medical events, which are likely heart attack or stroke, unrelated to physical violence. I’m not even sure they were inside the capitol building. So, in other words, Chicago on any typical weekend is more dangerous than the capitol was under siege.

President Trump, looking out window in the Oval Office
image found here

This is not to downplay the violence. It was wrong in every way. But, if you step back for perspective, it was not the storming of the Bastille with days of public beheadings. Business was underway again by late evening. The biggest casualty was the President’s opportunity to have the election fraud evidence seen—which was prevented by the timed attack. That in itself is enough to indicate the President was not inciting it.

My Conclusion

Based on what I’ve pieced together, I have what I think happened. I think the President called patriots to Washington to encourage the legislature to protest the electoral votes in the states known to have voting results that should not have been certified before the evidence was considered. I think a million people showed up to support him in doing that very thing. I think bad actors saw this as an opportunity to do damage to Trump and to his supporters. These include agent provocateurs, possibly Antifa and BLM, and also Pelosi and/or others who left the capitol vulnerable, possibly by coordinating with those APs.

 

Sources

·         Right Side livestream of President’s rally and speech—4+ hours of video 

·          Transcript of President’s speech 

·         “Timeline of Events in DC on Jan. 6” by Petr Svab for The Epoch Times, Jan. 13 (updated Jan. 14), 2021. 

·         “How a Presidential Rally Turned Into a Capitol Rampage” the “capitol mob timeline” by Lauren Leatherby, Arielle Ray, Anjali Singhvi, Christiaan Triebert, Derek Watkins and Haley Willis for The New York Times, Jan. 12, 2021. 

·         Account from James Buntrock, from the capitol  

·         “Analysis of Ashli Babbit Video Suggests Coordinated Actions—Interview with Masako Ganaha” Crossroads with Joshua Philipp, Jan. 11-2021. 

·         "'Agent Provocateur' Tactics Seen at Jan 6 US Capitol Protest—Interview with Michael Yon” Crossroads with Joshua Philipp, Jan. 10, 2021. 

·         “At Least One BLM Activist Among Those Who Breached US Capitol” Facts Matter with Roman Balmakov, Jan. 8, 2021. 

·         “Black Lives Matter Activist Took Part in Storming of Capitol” by Zachary Stieber for The Epoch Times, Jan. 8 (updated Jan. 9), 2021. 

·         “NEW Video appears to show police officers welcome Trump protesters into U.S. Capitol building” by Ellen Killoran for CrimeOnline, Jan. 8, 2021. 

o   Christina Bobb report for OANN, Jan. 8, 2021, Twitter video mentioned in above.   

·         “Trump Impeached Again! Save America Rally Transcript, McConnell's Hints, Hill Rioter Seeks Release” Robert H. Gruler for R&R Law Group, Jan. 13, 2021. 

·         “Why Impeachment Will Likely Fail; State of Emergency Declared in DC” Facts Matter with Roman Balmakov, Jan. 13, 2021. 

·         “Live Q&A: Trump Says Impeachment Is a 'Witch Hunt;' Big Tech Loses Billions Over Censorship” Crossroads with Joshua Philipp, Jan. 12, 2021. 

·         “Ep. 43: Another Impeachment? Capitol Hill Fallout; Tech ANTI-TRUST? Using the Law” Viva & Barnes livestream, Jan. 10,2021. 

·         “Live Q&A: Emergency Declaration in DC Approved by Trump; First Time Trump & Pence Speak Since Jan 6” Crossroads with Joshua Philipp, Jan. 11, 2021. 

·         “‘A Greater Revival Will Come to This Nation’—Interview With Pastor Brian Gibson” Crossroads with Joshua Philipp, Jan. 8, 2021. 

·         “Video shows police officers stand by and do nothing as rioters charge into US Capitol” by Gabrielle Fonrouge for New York Post, Jan. 8, 2021.    

·         “SEE IT: Video shows bloodied police officer pinned into door at U.S. Capitol riot” by Ellen Killoran for CrimeOnline, Jan. 8, 2021. Quote: “As CrimeOnline previously reported, Capitol police confirmed Thursday night that an officer died after sustaining injuries in the riot. According to multiple reports, he had been hit in the head with a fire hydrant. A woman died in a police-involved shooting after she reportedly tried to climb through a window, and three others died in what police described as ‘medical emergencies.’” 

·         “What Happened in DC,” Dr. Eric Nepute of Frontline Doctors, 

·         Paul Sperry tweet, forwarded on Facebook, about bus loads of Antifa in DC 

·         In-person account from Paulette Carson, forwarded on Facebook, about the rally and Antifa infiltration 

·         Congresswoman Cori Bush tweet, forwarded on Facebook, dated Jan. 5, 2021, before the events happened 

·         “Utah activist John Sullivan arrested for involvement in Capitol riot” by Erin Cox for Fox 13 Salt Lake City, Jan. 14, 2021. 

·         “Capitol Siege: The Left Rewrites History” Ep. 116 Slightly Offensive with Elijah Schaffer, Jan. 14, 2021. (behind paywall) 

·         Brett Hastings post on definition of incitement. 

·         “Missing Laptops Raise Cyber Risks From U.S. Capitol Mayhem” by Alyza Sebenius for Bloomberg, Jan. 7 (updated Jan. 8), 2021. 

·         “FBI: Attack on Capitol Was Pre-Planned” by Don Tran, NTD News, Jan. 14, 2021.