Hillsdale
College has an economic symposium going on right now (Sunday through Tuesday),
on “Money: History and Controversies.” They have two speakers each evening,
with live streaming, and apparently viewable later, because I didn’t get to it
until late Sunday evening.
The lecture series is found here. |
The one I watched already was Steve Forbes, “How the Destruction of
the Dollar Threatens the Global Economy,” which is also the title of a book by
Forbes. It was 45 minutes on monetary policy, followed by Q&A. Forbes
suggested that, if you ever feel trapped between other passengers on an
airplane and want a little extra room, just start a conversation on monetary
policy—people will give you a wide berth. It’s not the most enthralling of
topics. Nevertheless, he managed to keep it pretty interesting.
There was a
large segment in favor of returning to the gold standard, and how that would
work. Son Economic Sphere has told me in the past that gold is subject to
market forces, and therefore not an ideal basis for money. However, I found
Forbes’ logic fairly compelling. I don’t know enough to be able to reproduce
the arguments both ways, but I do realize that monetary stability depends on
the money supply exactly matching the creation of wealth, which it represents.
Forbes’
thinks that, while not ideal, gold is as stable as anything we have. If we set
the price at, say, $1100 per ounce, then when it rises above that, we know
money should be slightly looser (more dollars printed). If it goes under the
price, then it should be slightly tighter (fewer dollars printed). Maybe so.
He pointed
out that, since gold is an element, we don’t lose it. Whatever has been mined
up to this point in history is still gold. It can be reforged, reformed. You
might have bits of gold in a ring that was first used by ancient Egyptians. Gold is firm but malleable. It’s compact. In other words, there are reasons it has so
frequently been used as money.
But what
most got my attention was the final question and answer, which I’ve typed up
below. It was positive and hopeful, which I think we can use.
Q: When Carter became president,
inflation shot up to 18%. We thought we had joined the ranks of the banana
republics. Then Reagan became president, and I thought, finally we have turned
a corner; we are no longer on the road to serfdom. Now, 20, 30 years later, we
are still firmly on the road to serfdom[i]. So even if we get a
Reagan again, will it make any difference? Because, afterwards we’ll still go
back to walking down the road to serfdom?
A: Steve Forbes: Question about how, after Reagan,
could we be in the mess that we’re in today? And part of the answer is, we did
not have then what you might call the base of intellectual understanding and
ideas and advocates that we have today, that we did not have 35 years ago. And
in terms, even among Republicans 35 years ago, there was sort of the feeling
that government should play a real big role. And, yeah, we shouldn’t have
inflation; we should cut tax rates. But they didn’t take it to the next step.
I think
now, morally, people are beginning to realize that if you believe in free
markets, you can’t just say they work. You also have to make the moral case for
free markets. And that’s still a big task in front of us. That’s why I wrote a
couple of books on it. Others are doing it. Numerous have done it for a number
of years.
In essence,
you succeed in free markets by meeting the needs and wants of other people.
Even if you lust for money, you don’t get it unless you provide something that
someone else wants.
Now,
sometimes, as Steve Jobs said, when he was asked once, “Do you do marketing
surveys?” and he famously replied, “No, because people don’t know what they
want until we show them.” That’s part of entrepreneurship. You’ve tried
something new; you don’t know if it’s going to work. People suddenly may
discover they couldn’t live without it.
But,
meeting the needs and wants of other people. And just keep in mind,
philanthropy and commerce are often portrayed as polar opposites: you succeed
in commerce; you make up for your sins by giving it away to philanthropy. They’re
not polar opposites; they’re two sides of the same coin—meeting the needs and
wants of other people. Different ways to do it, but same objective, which is
why the US, the most commercial nation ever invented, is also the most
philanthropic nation in the world.
Two sides
of the same coin. We have to make that moral case.
There’s a
lot more understanding of economics. There’s a lot more understanding about
free markets today than there was 35 years ago, 60 years ago, 80 years ago. Now
we know, more and more, that when you get these big economic crises, it’s not a
sudden failure of free market or outbreak of greed. It is massive government
policy error.
Now, I just
want to say, it doesn’t excuse wrongdoing in free markets, or wrongdoing by
bankers or anybody else. But, human nature hasn’t changed in thousands of
years. People’s ability to do bad things preceded Adam Smith. Believe me, just
look at the Bible, this is something that predated Adam Smith.
So, it’s a
very good question. But now I think we are setting the foundation where, we get
a good president, good. But what we want is understanding, as Hillsdale has
tried to do, where even if you get a total mediocrity, the accepted wisdom is: Constitution, free markets, having a moral
basis of a free society. When that happens, you don’t have to depend on a
Reagan. When you have that kind of consensus. So we’ve got to get the consensus
right, and not be dependent on particular outstanding individuals.
I highlighted
that section near the end, because that got my attention. It coincides with my
Spherical Model theory, that the political, economic, and social spheres
interrelate. The goals are
freedom, which we get from abiding by the US Constitution; prosperity, which we
get from free markets (not to be confused with crony capitalism); and
civilization, which we get from a moral people living moral lives, which
includes strong families to pass along the way to civilization.
I like
seeing evidence that we can make progress toward these things. Economically
speaking, I think he is right that the understanding is getting through. When I
was in college, I was blessed with free market teachers; they were somewhat
rare in the late 70s. But now, with so much data to back it up, free market is
the most likely kind of economic education you get in college. I’ve observed
that change over the past decade and a half. So the hope seems real.
Our
freedom, prosperity, and civilization are in trouble, but there’s reason to
hope we can make the changes necessary to get them back. He’s right that we’ll
need to defend the morality of free markets, that economy depends on meeting
the needs and wants of people both through commerce and philanthropy—which requires
a morally good people.
We need to
express that viewpoint better. My writing here is an attempt toward that end.
(See “Anything Evil about Capitalism, Part I, Part II, Part III. For the longer list of my economic posts see Best of Spherical Model Part II and More of the Best Part III.)
[i] He is referring to the classic book
The Road to Serfdom, by Friedrich
Hayek, which details the dangers of attempting to control the economy.
My problem with the gold standard is that it is tied to only one commodity, not that it is rules based. If we were to suddenly find a large source of gold, or if we found more uses for gold then we would face financial ruin from the rapid inflation and deflation, but if we simply had a rule that the central bank must follow it would remain stable. An example of this is New Zealand's inflation target of 1%, but I prefer a price path. The important thing is stability, and a basket of goods is going to have less fluctuation than a single good.
ReplyDeleteMy problem with the gold standard is that it is tied to only one commodity, not that it is rules based. If we were to suddenly find a large source of gold, or if we found more uses for gold then we would face financial ruin from the rapid inflation and deflation, but if we simply had a rule that the central bank must follow it would remain stable. An example of this is New Zealand's inflation target of 1%, but I prefer a price path. The important thing is stability, and a basket of goods is going to have less fluctuation than a single good.
ReplyDeleteMonday's first speaker also didn't approve of the gold standard. But Forbes did agree that the purpose is to go for stability, so I guess we're in search of that. I can't remember now if it was Forbes or someone else I heard recently, who pointed out that 2% inflation isn't a very happy goal for a family making $50,000 a year; that's a rise in costs of $1000 a year.
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