“The problem with
socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money”—Margaret Thatcher
I was thinking about this quote a few days ago while
conversing with a friend in Venezuela. Our friend Farida, from Uganda, who is
working in Venezuela for another year or so, was in contact on Facebook. I
asked her how she was doing, now that she had finished training in Houston and
returned there. I was concerned because I’d read this article about shortages there, particularly
toilet paper.
The article starts with this:
CARACAS, Venezuela - First milk, butter, coffee and cornmeal
ran short. Now Venezuela is running out of the most basic of necessities —
toilet paper.
Blaming political opponents for the shortfall, as it does for
other shortages, the embattled socialist government says it will import 50
million rolls to boost supplies.
That was little comfort to consumers struggling to find
toilet paper on Wednesday.
The conversation between government and economists is almost
comical:
"State-controlled prices—prices that are set below
market-clearing price—always result in shortages. The shortage problem will
only get worse, as it did over the years in the Soviet Union," said Steve
Hanke, professor of economics at Johns Hopkins University.
President Nicolas Maduro, who was selected by the dying Hugo
Chavez to carry on his "Bolivarian revolution," claims that
anti-government forces, including the private sector, are causing the shortages
in an effort to destabilize the country.
The government has announced its intention to import 760,000
tons of food, plus 50 million rolls of toilet paper. Commerce Minister Alejandro
Fleming said of this amount, "We are going to saturate the market so that
our people calm down." I looked up population data, and Venezuela has a
total population in 2011 of 27,635,743. We could round either up or down, but
we can estimate how long 50 million rolls will last the population.
I’m an extravagant American living in plenty, who likes to
be clean. I also happen to use the same bathroom most of the time, so I will do
for estimating. With help of Mr. Spherical Model, we go through a roll in about
two days. Let’s stretch that out, to double, for people who are trying harder
to make things last. Let’s say, generously, that a person can make a roll last
for a week. That means that, after a couple of weeks of ordering in 50 million
rolls (assuming faster shipping and disbursement than is normal in Venezuela),
the country must already have ordered another 50 million, because those are
going to be gone before another order can arrive.
So I asked Farida whether she was experiencing these
problems. Yes, indeed. She had been living in a hotel before her training in
Houston, and now is setting up in her own little house. So she now needs
products she didn’t worry about in the hotel. And no toilet paper is available.
We discussed options. Amazon doesn’t ship there. Stores are empty. After two
weeks of looking, she finally got some TP from “some Chinese guys.” She says, “Fortunately
I always have baby wipes somewhere.” But for how long? I told her that my
mother, as a young girl on a farm, used to use catalogs and other paper that
was going to be thrown out anyway. She laughed, but she may be considering
this.
She said, “It’s a roller coaster ride in this country. I
feel like I’m doing my time…. The mentalities are worse than the struggles…. If
I told you what I have had to go through in this country, you’d be shocked.
There is nothing more hard to survive than a fixed state of mind. I haven’t
told my family because they would be in a state of panic.”
Mr. Spherical Model has a new boss, who recently transferred
from Venezuela. He lived there for some years with his family. Getting the family
moved out has taken longer than planned—everything does. (This is the second
boss over the years transferring out of Venezuela.) He confirmed the hardships.
He met Farida briefly before leaving, and added that where she is located, near
the oil fields, is really in the middle of nowhere, so it’s even harder to get
needed goods.
Farida avoids bread anyway, but one of the success claims of
Venezuela has been that it always provides bread to its people. It’s a kind of
white “pita” called arepa, that is
cut in half and then filled as a sort of sandwich. It hasn’t exactly caught on
worldwide, but the people there are used to it. Except now they can’t even get
their entitlement share of arepas.
Venezuelan bread, arepas, stock photo |
I did the math on the food being imported by government as
well. According to the US Dept. of Agriculture, the average American eats this
much:
The US Dept. Of Agriculture estimates that the average person
in the United States eats .5 lbs of meat, 1.6 lbs of dairy products, .2 lbs of
fats and oils, .8 lbs of fruits, .7 lbs. Of vegetables, .5 lbs of grains, and
.4 lbs of sugars per day for a total of 4.7 lbs. of food per day.
Let’s say that people in Venezuela are smaller, or used to
less, and get by on 3 pounds of food a day. If I did the math right, the
special shipment of 760,000 tons of food will last all of 18 days. By the time
they can order more, again, the shipment (if it ever reaches the people) will
have run out. In the US, if there’s a shortage, someone in the marketplace
opens up a factory, or farm, or supply line, to sell to the waiting buyers. Seems
more sensible.
Venezuela hasn’t always been this way. It may never have
been as thriving as what we’re used to, but it has abundant natural resources,
natural beauty, a good climate. It should be possible for people to thrive
there. Socialism, among the population (exempting the elite rulers) has been a
leveler. It has taken from producers, to make sure they had no more than
non-producers. It has prevented innovation and success, removing incentive to
produce. And it has created the mindset that government provides, so everyone
will be dependent.
It is an exemplary socialist state: rulers create needs and
provide just enough subsistence to maintain power over a helpless but not quite
desperate people. If the goal is to provide power to a limited number of power
mongers, it has met the goal. If it is, as stated, to build a utopian, perfect,
productive equality society—it fails, as they all must.
The reason to bring up Venezuela, and other socialist
tyrannies, is as a warning. We have power mongers, using socialist dogma and
patterns, in order to remove power from us—We the people—in our Constitutional
republic. We know what will happen if they are allowed to take us down that
road—economic and social failure.
On the Spherical Model, only tyranny, economic deprivation,
and savagery are possible when people are held down in the southern hemisphere.
That is the only outcome possible. The only antidote is living the principles
of freedom, free enterprise, and civilization. May we find the courage and
character within ourselves to move back upward!
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