Charts and Other Info

Today, once again, is about data and questions related to this virus that has messed up our lives for the past two years.

There’s a chart worth looking at:

from Alex Berenson's Substack

It shows data from Great Britain during the last week of December and first week of January. I got this in a regular email from libertarian Tom Woods, who has been providing a lot of COVID-19 data and commentary throughout the pandemic. The email is passing along info from Alex Berenson’s Substack. The Berenson post included similar charts from Scotland, Israel, and Denmark, all showing age makes more of a difference than vaccination status. And then Berenson comments,

Remember, these failures cannot be blamed on vaccine skepticism, or Tucker Carlson, or me. These countries are as close to fully vaccinated as it is possible to be.

If you think this is what you were promised a year ago—or six months ago, or even a month ago—I don’t know what to tell you. But the answer cannot be to do MORE of what has not worked.

He's right. But as I look at the Britain chart, I still have questions. It compares the raw numbers of unvaccinated to the vaccinated. But it doesn’t compare populations. You would need to know how many in the total population are vaccinated or unvaccinated at those various levels. Then you could do a per population comparison, for example per 10,000 or per million or whatever is appropriate. There are probably other studies that do that.

Even better, but I don’t know how to get this, would be data on how well the different cohorts do when exposed to the virus. You can’t really tell how effective a vaccine is if the vaccinated person isn’t exposed to the virus. Since you can’t purposely expose people, that study isn’t possible. So you have to extrapolate from general populations and assume there’s some sort of random or generalized exposure.

And, of course, the unvaccinated bucket contains both those who have gotten and recovered from the disease and those who haven’t contracted it yet. There’s an enormous difference between those two cohorts. Add in, as Dr. Mobeen Syed talked about January 27, there’s data showing that people in households with sick Covid patients but who do not also contract the disease—so they have definitely been exposed but don’t get sick—also show that they have antibodies. From some previous illness? From a highly tuned immune system that stopped the virus in its tracks before it could cause illness? More study needed. But it’s interesting. It’s not different from what we see in a great many other illnesses, where some people in the family get sick, but some resist illness.

There may always be more to learn. But it does look like we’re nearing the end of this pandemic. There are still some deaths happening, although more of a plateau than a rise. There are still some hospitalizations. But only a small fraction need oxygen or ventilators, and time in hospital is down from weeks to 3 to 5 days.

The number I don’t have is hospitalizations as a percentage of cases. Even during Delta, the number was about 1 in 100, of which somewhere above 90% recovered—while media had stirred the public to believe that 50% of cases went to the hospital and 50% or so of those died.

But now, the case numbers have skyrocketed. I look at my zip code to get a grasp on numbers, gathering numbers daily from the Harris County website. Through most of the pandemic, we’ve had active cases mostly below 100. Now we’re more than 10 times that number. Yet we have had no additional deaths since early December. The total number—through the entire pandemic—is between 36 and 38. We hit 36 on November 30; 37 on December 7; 38 on December 10. That was a pretty rapid rise, since we’d been averaging a bit over 19 days between additional deaths. But this was Delta, before Omicron took over.

But wait! We went back down to 37 on December 16, and down to 36 on December 17, then back up to 38 on December 18, but back down to 36 on December 24—Merry Christmas to whichever families got their loved ones back. I’ve been calling these resurrections. We went as low as 35 again on December 27, but have toggled mostly between 36, 37, and 38 most days since. Yesterday and today we are at 37. I don’t know the meaning of these “resurrections.” I’m assuming someone inputs data wrong, although I can’t explain why they would change it downward from an existing number. It may be that a death attributed to COVID-19 was later found to be due to some other cause. Whatever the reason, we essentially have not had a death due to COVID-19 in this zip code for over a month and a half. Back when we first got to 37 deaths, we had 70 active cases. Now, we topped out at just over 1200 active cases last weekend, and maybe this week we’re trending back down for good.

The comparison is, 70 active cases, one death per 20 days, to 1100 active cases, no deaths in 45 days.

I also look at my son’s county, in rural central Texas (getting data daily from the state) which has a population in the range of imaginable, like my zip code. They had a surge in deaths in a late summer wave. In November they had a total of 7 deaths. In December, just 1, going 35 days until 2 more in January. None the past two weeks. Their cases, meanwhile, have skyrocketed as we see all over.

In other words, unlike in past waves, deaths remain low, as if we are past a wave, even though our case rates are the highest ever. And, we should add, case rates are likely undercounted, since only official tests count, and for people who have only minor symptoms, they’re likely to stay home a few days until they feel better and not bother getting a test that would tell them to stay home a few days until they feel better. Or maybe they've done an at-home test that they do not report.

I’m on day 4 of something that feels like a bad cold; my husband had it for the five days before I came down with it. Neither of us had fever. I had a sore throat the first day. The rest has been just sinus congestion and severe fatigue. I haven’t been able to find at-home tests in stores (don't want to contact the government to send me any), and haven't wanted to go out and get a test when what I’m doing is getting me through this just fine. But, maybe it would be good to know if this is just a cold or Omicron.

The silver lining for all the people getting the Omicron variant this month is, getting the virus now gives future immunity. Even if there’s another wave to come, of an even more transmissible variant, this natural immunity holds up. And for those who miraculously stayed well through until the next strain, the severity of a future strain is going to be no worse than now, and possibly even weaker. And it will only progress through the population that doesn’t have it now, a population that's getting harder to find.

I've been watching these charts turn blue lately. The comparison is to the week before in that area. You can get actual numbers by clicking on the interactive maps on the site. If an area has been blue for a very long time, like South Africa, and now it's up a bit, that's a comparison to that place 7 days earlier, already low, so probably still low and not reason for alarm. There's another level that goes down to the county level, which is also fun to look at. Again, these are case counts, saying nothing about severity of illness, just whether it is spreading (orange) or not (blue).

New cases compared to 7 days prior, showing the trend
for the past three days for the US.
data gathered daily from here

New cases compared to 7 days prior, showing the trend
for the past three days for countries worldwide.
data gathered daily from here

Dr. John Campbell has been giving a lot of good news, from the data, this past week. On January 27, he pointed out that concerns about high case rates or even hospitalizations are temporary:

I don’t think it will mean that more people will die overall. But it means that the deaths could come in a shorter period of time, because the infection is going through the population in a shorter period of time.

A week earlier, January 20, Dr. Campbell presented interesting data on deaths from COVID-19 with no other underlying causes. That was eye opening. 

He refers to a release of data in the UK, following a FOIA request, which he assumes will translate to similar news in the US, Canada, and other similar countries.  The data was provided about a month ago but strangely was not mentioned in mainstream media, and he only just came across it. The data is cumulative, covering 2020 through the first three quarters of 2021, ending September 30, 2021. They’re looking at deaths listing COVID-19 and no other cause on the death certificate.

Total deaths from COVID-19 with no other underlying causes.: 17, 371

Age 0-64: 3,774

Age 65+: 13,597

During this time, the average age of these COVID deaths in 2021 for all of UK: 82.5 years.  This means a lot of people were over 82.5 in order to get that average. For comparison, the average life expectancy in the UK from 2018 to 2020 (which includes the first year of the pandemic):

Males: 79.0 years

Females: 82.9 years

Averaged out for whole country, there’s a drop in life expectancy of 7 weeks for men and an increase of 0.5 weeks for women—meaning all the COVID deaths have only reduced men’s life expectancy by a few weeks, and women’s life expectancy through the COVID-19 pandemic has actually increased by 3-4 days.

Dr. Campbell did this simple math, dividing the total number of deaths WITH COVID-19—137,133—by the number of deaths FROM COVID-19—17,371—and you get that there are 7.9 times more deaths WITH than FROM the virus.

For anyone well under 82.5 years old without comorbidities, the likelihood of death caused by COVID-19 was remarkably low—through September 2021. Since then, the Delta variant has been taken over by the Omicron variant, and likelihood of death has further dropped dramatically.

The data we’re getting can be summed up as:

·       Natural immunity is much stronger than vaccination.

·       The surge in cases with the Omicron variant (and sub-variants) will mean a huge portion of the population will have natural immunity going forward.

·       Vaccination may be helpful for certain groups, such as the elderly and those with comorbidities, for whom the virus is most dangerous; to all others, the vaccines and boosters provide little protection from contracting the virus or spreading the virus, and only marginal help in less virulent cases.

·       Following each additional booster, the amount of time before antibodies wain and a new booster is needed drops approximately in half. (This is mentioned in a Dr. Mobeen video.)

·       Lockdowns, masks, mandates, and other attempts at coercing the public have not contributed to protection from COVID-19 and have contributed to deaths and lower health by other causes than COVID-19.

There’s more news daily. Most of it indicates better days ahead, and what ought to be regret for the utter failure of national health advisories responsible for doing everything wrong these past two years, including squelching dissent and even possibilities for treatments, which have been known since the early months of 2020.

Heather Heying and Bret Weinstein discussed how to go forward, after knowing how people have behaved the past two years. Their advice seems to be, if someone recognizes their wrongness and apologizes—or at least admits their wrongness—then that is the right direction going forward, and we can associate with them. If they refuse even now to recognize they were wrong, or perhaps they claim against all evidence that they’d been on the side of truth all along, then we will know them for what they are and probably continue to distrust them. This has been significant for them. They were fired from their teaching positions and had their lives disrupted and their reputations sullied. For me, I’m just an onlooker, seeking the truth the whole time, but not materially affected.

This whole episode in world history has been both baffling and disturbing. May the effort to tyrannize people through fearmongering over this illness end abruptly and soon. And may everyone be wiser in the future.

 

More Resources:

Dr. John Campbell and Dr. Mobeen Syed put out videos just about every day going over the latest data and latest news. I suggest following them. Both are pretty good at explaining the data clearly, and also give links to the data sources for you to search out yourself. Dr. Peter McCullough goes on various podcasts and is always worth listening to. Besides those linked above, here are a few more sources worth checking out:

·       Dr. Peter McCullough on Meet Me for Coffee podcast, January 9, 2022.  Dr. McCullough gives a list of ways to treat yourself at home when you can’t get hold of the helpful medications (HCQ or Ivermectin).

·       “FDA Approval Never Happened for the Vaccines? Peter McCullough” on Anthony Pompliano podcast, January 12, 2022.

·       “Walmart in Quebec is BANNING Unvaccinated from Entering! Viva Vlawg on the Street” Viva Frei law vlog, January 25, 2022. 

·       “Who constructed the COVID narrative? (Chris Martenson & Bret Weinstein)” DarkHorse podcast clips, January 28, 2022. This is an interesting conversation about the topsy turvy situation we’re in.

·       The Real Anthony Fauci: Bill Gates, Big Pharma, and the Global War on Democracy and Public Health, by Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., © 2021, Skyhorse Publishing Inc. 

·       “Man removed from heart transplant list for being unvaccinated gets emergency pump” Yaron Steinbuch for the New York Post, January 27, 2022.