Time for a COVID-19 update. We haven’t done one of these in a while, but since the President is dealing with the illness, maybe it’s time.
The President's Weekend Story
To catch you up, the President made the announcement that he
and the First Lady had both tested positive. I saw it around 1:00 AM Friday
morning where I live.
Earlier, on Thursday I believe, he had been on Sean Hannity, debriefing the Tuesday night debate. At that time he mentioned that he was being tested, because White House aide Hope Hicks had tested positive. He is tested frequently regardless. Everyone who works with him is tested frequently. And all kinds of precautions are taken, since he is the President of the United States.
He did say in the interview that it was difficult, when you meet with
people, like military and veterans, and they want to come up and hug you—it’s
difficult to push them away. You don’t want to do that. And Hope Hicks, he
said, is a very caring person. He seemed to be saying, it was inevitable at
some point that she would get it because of her loving care for those she would
meet. He wasn’t attempting to praise himself, but he was saying there are
social limits to caring about yourself.
Also on Thursday he met with a group at a fundraising event
at a golf course. I don’t know details of the event, but some 200 people who
were there have been contacted to be cautious. That was before the positive
test results came back—and, as I mentioned, he’s tested frequently, so he doesn’t
shut down his schedule pending the results of every test. Also, he only removed his mask to speak, at what should have been a safe distance from the audience.
As of Thursday evening he wasn’t showing symptoms; late in
the day Friday he was. So it is conceivable that he was contagious on Thursday.
But the usual precautions were taken that day as always. It is possible he
spread it to no one. It is, of course, also possible that he did spread it.
Since Friday several others have tested positive. I’m unsure
of all of them, but they include Chris Christie, Kellyanne Conway, and Kayleigh
McEnany. Did he spread it to them, or did they contract it from the same vector
the President got it from? Maybe somebody knows that, but the news spreaders do
not.
The response has been mixed. A great many people are praying
for the President. And he is leaving the hospital today, apparently improving
greatly already—just three days later. Those who wish him death have revealed
that it is not our President who lacks decorum.
The Accusation
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| President Donald Trump, outside Walter Reed Hospital, October 3 Reuters image from here |
There was something in my Facebook feed I want to respond to today. This is from a friend whose relationship I value. I will not mention her name. I do not hate her for disagreeing with me. But I’m very concerned that this person, who is very bright, cannot see what I see. And it may be that she literally never sees the information I see. In an interview Scott Adams did with Glenn Beck recently, they both shared experiences about people not even seeing the many stories that we think are relevant; we conservatives, on the other hand, do see the stories they refer to. Nonconservatives often live in a media blackout bubble. Maybe some conservatives do too, but that’s not my experience.
My friend linked this story from Reuters, posted October 3rd: “Infected Trump greets supporters in motorcade
outside hospital; his health unclear.” There is some news in the story, but
there is also a slant, full of innuendo and speculation that is, of course, not
news. And there are additional accusations, beyond this story, that maybe the President is faking it and isn't sick at all. My friend responds with this:
I genuinely can’t tell what’s more disturbing: the
possibility that he has faked his diagnosis, or the possibility that the
diagnosis is real and he is INTENTIONALLY exposing others. It’s one or the
other, and both are horrifying.
The Logic Lesson
Here’s a lesson in logic: when you haven’t looked at all the
possibilities—particularly the most likely possibility—then you shouldn’t go
with an either/or statement.
Did the President fake his diagnosis? Why would he do that? If
he’s, as you say, trying to act like it’s not all that prevalent, why would he
fake it? And why would a person who maintains his image assiduously allow
himself to look weak for the sake of a fake story? And how could he possibly
expect, in a place where “deep state” lifetime government workers have proved
themselves more than willing to leak information, true or not—how could he
expect all doctors, aides, and associates to go along with such a lie?
Seriously, that simply does not ring true.
Did the President intentionally expose others? What is your
evidence? He went to the hospital, in a helicopter, with any accompanying
individuals protected in the highest level gear. While he was in the hospital,
spontaneous thousands gathered outside to show their support of the President.
Most with masks, outside, socially distanced, so let’s not worry about them for
now. He surprised them by getting in a motorcade car and driving through the
street to wave at the supporters. He was wearing a mask, in a presidential motorcade car, with the windows up.
You’re worried about the driver and secret service? Do you
know whether they had any contact, or whether there was a window between the
driver and back seat? Do you know whether the driver and service members were chosen
because they already had immunity to the disease? Did you ask? Did you notice
or learn about their special gear to protect themselves? Did you know that the
secret service members would need to stay near the President even if he had
remained at the White House?
The story itself says, “White House spokesman Judd Deere
said the trip had been approved by medical staff and that appropriate
precautions had been taken.” In other words, the President wasn’t being
cavalier. He may have asked whether the drive-by appearance could be done. If
it could not have been done safely, his security team and doctors would have said
so.
The other accusation is that he was spreading it to other
patients at the hospital. As I understand it, Walter Reed Army Hospital has a
private official area for the President. There is an office where he can
continue work. Ronald Reagan worked from there as he recovered from his gunshot
wound. It is more secure than the White House; that may be one reason he was
taken there, rather than simply treated at the White House. Plus, it would be
easier to safely handle his food, hygiene, and medicines at the hospital.
But that’s about his security; what about the others? The
story posed this worry, rather than find out any answers: “He said he had been
meeting soldiers and first responders at the hospital, raising new questions
about whether he was now directly exposing others to the disease.” And followed
with a quote from a critic: “’The irresponsibility is astounding,’” Dr. James
Phillips, an attending physician at the hospital, said on Twitter.” An
attending physician means a doctor at that hospital, not one attending to the President.
Not someone privy to any more information than the general public has had. Did
the media follow up with anyone who had first-hand knowledge of the President
spreading a disease to recuperating servicemen? No? Why didn’t they?
So you think the President, knowing he was sick with a
contagious disease, was allowed to go bed to bed to unsuspecting patients and
breathe on them, and no doctors would be there preventing that? Did he meet
them in person? If so, were they people who were already dealing with the same disease, or who already had it and were immune, or who had a
barrier between them? Did you ask? Just because you hate the President doesn’t
mean he’s doing evil things.
There’s a third possibility in that insufficient either/or: You
don’t have the full story. Most likely, he has the disease, and he and everyone
around him have taken every precaution to both keep him safe and get him well,
and safeguard those around him. That is the most likely scenario. That is the
task, the mission, of everyone surrounding him—which he does not have the
power, particularly while ill, to override.
He can’t override his security team even on a good health
day. That thing you hated him about a few weeks ago—a report that he wouldn’t
go honor veterans at a cemetery because he was worried about his hair, and he
thought those who died were losers, a story without evidence but with 5 anonymous
sources, totally debunked by a dozen or so people who were actually there at
the time, including those who didn’t like the President, verifying that the
accusation was an outright lie. That story. The President had wanted to go to the cemetery. He
would have been taken by helicopter, but the wind and rain were too worrisome;
you don’t risk the President of the United States. His protectors said no. So
others, including I think the Vice President, went by taking a three-hour car
drive that neither the President’s schedule nor his security detail would
permit. (And, no, of course he didn’t say anything disrespectful of those who died in battle.
That would also be out of character.)
When I read stories like that, where I see logic holes
filled with spiteful speculation, I raise an eyebrow and wait for more
information. I did that even with a president I had every reason to dislike and
disbelieve.
Now for the more general COVID-19 data update.
This morning on Glenn Beck’s radio program, he went through
some statistics—from, as he ironically put it, “that right-wing think tank the
CDC”:
· America is 10th worldwide in COVID-19
deaths per million population.
· America’s guidelines for reporting COVID-19
deaths are more generous than other countries; any death in which COVID-19 was
suspected as a co-morbidity is included, whether or not the actual cause of
death was unrelated. This difference in counting inflates our comparative death
numbers.
· Excluding deaths in New York, America would be 47th
in the world in COVID-19 deaths per million population. In other words, most of
America on average (even including New Jersey) is doing rather well at keeping deaths low.
· America tests more than other countries. Far
more. Roughly 30% of the US population have now been tested. This inflates the
total confirmed cases in comparison with the rest of the world.
· America’s case fatality rate is average; 4%
of the treated patients die. That’s the worst stat we have.
· America’s infection fatality rate (IFR)—total
number of people infected versus total confirmed deaths—is .63%. That’s well
below the world average, which the WHO estimates to be .94%; 38 countries have
IFRs higher than the US.
· America’s IFR went from 1.18% in May to .63% in
August; we cut the IFR in half as we improved therapies by switching from
treating COVID-19 as a lung disorder to treating it as a clotting and blood
pressure disorder.
· Our IFR broadly—total mortality among total
population—puts us in a better position than 37 other countries; the IFR data
is this good even when we include New York, which badly skewed our data.
· Researchers at Lawrence Livermore Labs estimated
in June that, without the travel restrictions from China and the EU, implemented
by President Trump against the advice of “experts,” the case fatality rate
would be the same as those countries; we would have by now 720,000 dead. Travel
restrictions dramatically slowed the death rate by slowing the infection rate,
sparing us from an additional 500,000 (half a million) dead.
I continue to gather data locally. I took this screenshot on
October 3rd. (Data is from Domo.com/Covid19/daily-pulse/.) It shows Change
by US County, New Cases compared to 7 Days Prior. Harris County is
down 63% from the previous week.
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| Changes in New Cases from a week earlier Data and graphs from here on October 3, 2020 |
Just to show you how confusing data can be, I looked again today, and our county is up 62%. But when I look at the raw number of new cases, it’s lower than it was on Saturday. It’s down from 919 to 872, but the 62% increase is because, I'm guessing, last Monday showed only 537 new cases. In other words, it’s a direct comparison to the week before, not a weekly rolling average the way I do them. This source is new to me, so I'll keep looking and try to figure it out.
I gave up on getting accurate case counts quite a while ago;
the sources kept changing their criteria, and sometimes changing what data they
provided. So I’ve been doing a weekly rolling average chart of deaths in my
county and state. Here are the updates.
This is the new deaths per day for Texas. I’ve used the daily coronavirus data printed in the Houston Chronicle from official sources. This is the data I’ve had the longest. You can see a peak a while ago. But some parts of Texas are still having the occasional spike.
This is Harris County, where Houston is located. I’ve been keeping a daily count of new deaths, taken from the county public health site. They don't give historical data on deaths, so I need to go there daily to capture the data (you can see I missed a few days). Before this chart, assume there was a gradual rise in May, a spike in early June, and back down to this in early July, when I started this chart. Our peak is mid-August, a bit later than the Texas peak.
Out of curiosity, because it was available on the county public health site, I’ve been tracking my zip code. While case numbers are generally inaccurate, I thought I’d see what new cases looked like just in my area. At the same time I’ve tracked changes in active cases in my area, which you can see is either low or negative most of the time. I think we're about average for Harris County.
The county keeps changing what they show. In mid-September,
they changed from graphing the increase in cases per day to showing a combo of
recent and older cases—which I hadn’t been tracking. But they started showing
an alternative graph called “Epi Curve of Cases Over Time,” which I think is a
more accurate picture of how we’re doing. Today it looks like this.
Maybe it has nothing to do with our behavior, or our safety;
it has to do with wielding power. It keeps the economy shut down, and keeps people cowering when we’re within a week of early voting.
What We've Learned
Good data is hard to get. Good information is harder. But good common sense only leaves if you give up using your own brain and let someone else feed you lies that affect your amygdala with fear.
This disease is a bad thing. I wish it wasn’t part of our
lives. But facing the reality of it and getting on with our lives as best we
can is a better solution than:
· Blaming the president.
· Telling lies about what is actually happening before
our eyes.
· Huddling in fear until some dictator allows you
to come out under circumstances they determine.
Another day we’ll have to look again at Sweden, which seems to have better common sense than most of the rest of the world. Who would have thought America would need lessons in maintaining freedom from Sweden?
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