Two years ago I wrote about the book One Second After,
by William R. Forstchen, which novelizes the aftermath of an electromagnetic
pulse (EMP) strike. It’s time to write about that issue again.
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| Frank Gaffney photo from Center for Security Policy |
This past Saturday I was privileged to sit in a room with
some influential people, and listen to Frank Gaffney, Founder and President of
the Center for Security Policy, a national security think tank; Dr. Peter Pry, Executive
Director of the Task Force on National and Homeland Security, a Congressional
advisory board dedicated to protecting the US from an EMP attack and other
threats; and others who were trying to get us informed about this issue.
Here’s the short of it: an EMP is a super surge that fries
electrical systems. It’s like a lightning strike—only much much more powerful
and much more widespread. It can affect any unprotected electronics, from giant
transformers down to phones, computers, appliances, cars, and the whole gamut. It can
mean that a large portion of our infrastructure—the electric grid—is vulnerable,
leaving everything we use electricity for ruined.
There are natural and man-made threats. The natural threat
comes from the sun: solar flares. Not just any flare, but really big ones,
called a coronal mass ejection. The size to be concerned about is called Carrington
class, named for a really big one that happened in 1859, taking down the
telegraph system. Telegraph units burst into flame. Even trans-Atlantic
underwater cables were affected.
We weren’t at that time dependent on electricity as part of
our infrastructure, like we are today. Estimates now predict that loss of power
could lead to the deaths of up to 90% of the population in a relatively short
time—a few weeks or months. Our food, transportation, communications, and sometimes
even air and water depend on electricity. People dependent on electricity for
medical conditions might be most immediately affected. It could take up to
several years (not days, weeks, or months) to rebuild infrastructure—assuming that
the resources still exist outside the affected area.
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| Dr. Peter Pry photo from Center for Security Policy |
How likely is a large coronal mass ejection? Likely. In 2012
we had the largest one since 1859, and two years ago we had a near miss. It’s
sort of like waiting for an earthquake. Chances are, at some point, the big
one(s) will come. In the meantime, you can ignore the danger, but ignoring it
does nothing to alleviate the threat. Such a solar flare would travel to us at a speed
of 3 million miles per hour, so we would have nearly no warning time to prepare.
The man-made threat comes from a nuclear explosion above the
atmosphere. Our enemies know our vulnerability. Enemies include North Korea,
Iran, Russia, China, and any other bad actors with nuclear capabilities or seeking
them. This type of attack is more likely than a nuclear missile attack on land.
And since most of our defense technology depends on electricity, our ability to
respond would be compromised.
The awareness of our vulnerability has actually been there a
while. One of our speakers on Saturday was Texas State Senator Bob Hall, who
gave us some history. Back after he graduated from the Citadel, in the 1960s, as a second lieutenant, he worked on the Minuteman Missile program. The
Pentagon had become aware that their high altitude tests knocked out power in
the islands below.
Meanwhile, Russian tests knocked out power in the Soviet
Union. That led to agreements to halt high altitude tests (underground testing
continued after that). So, with the awareness that electronics were vulnerable,
Senator Hall’s job was to protect—harden—the missiles.
He eventually left the military and never talked about this,
because it had been highly classified. And then a few years ago people started
talking about it openly. And he realized it was something he felt called to act
on. He calls himself a “recovering political apathetic.” He stepped out of what
he retirement, took on being a state senator—and in the last legislative
session he carried the bill dealing with this issue.
Even though it’s a trans-partisan issue (we all use
electricity, and we’re all vulnerable to the loss of our electricity), it’s
just barely reaching people’s awareness. Issues often take multiple times in
the legislature to get through. But we remain vulnerable as long as this isn’t
handled.
Let me spell out a few important details. Hardening the grid
is not technologically difficult. It’s something like putting metal in the
right places, so that a surge would hit the metal rather than the electronics
within. A Faraday cage is a simple version—scalable to use at home.
We learned Saturday that your home microwave can be used as
a Faraday cage—to protect your essential medical equipment or something else,
of course only when the microwave is not in use. Another simple home version
can be a metal garbage can. Whatever you place inside should be placed in a
plastic bag or container, so the electrical object doesn’t touch the metal
walls of the can.
Nor is hardening the grid expensive. The entire US could have
the basic grid protected for $2 billion. If we gave up a single
unconstitutional regulatory program, we could immediately pay for it. Greater
protection of the entire infrastructure could cost up to $20 billion. But that
investment could come eventually; the immediate insurance should be the basic
grid.
There are three electric grids covering the contiguous US
states: the eastern grid handles about 75% of the population. The rest is
covered by the western grid and the Texas grid. Yes, Texas has its own
independent grid. We have no federal oversight. It is our responsibility. We
can protect ourselves, regardless of what the federal government does or does
not do.
Electricity is essentially a private industry product—85%
private in the US. And those of us talking about it are free-market
anti-harmful-government-regulation types on principle. So what’s going on? One
question that came up Saturday was, why don’t the utility companies do
something about this?
The answer isn’t exactly simple. Already in Texas, government officials have offered the money necessary to harden the grid—at no cost to the utilities.
And the utilities said, “No thanks; we have it under control.” To this, Senator
Hall asked directly if they were ready to be audited for an EMP attack; they
obfuscated.
Their workers, board members, and owners will all be subject
to the same loss of life and civilization as the rest of us. Yet they refuse to
act.
One explanation is that these companies aren’t run by
engineers; they’re run by lawyers. Their priority is to protect against
liability. In a way, responding that they know the danger exists is an
admission that they should have already protected the grid. So refusing to act
is a way of refusing to admit knowledge—so their liability is safe.
The best answer I heard Saturday was from Dr. Pry, that the
electrical industry is acting similarly to other industries in history. The zeppelin
industry insisted on hydrogen, and refused to pay a little extra for helium,
claiming they were so careful, an accident would never happen. Until it did.
And then the industry was destroyed entirely.
The automobile industry didn’t put safety glass in cars, and
seat bests and other safety measures—until public demand followed by government
regulation forced them to.
Union Carbide pesticides are another example. They went to
Bhopal, India, where they were free from regulation. Until they had an accident
resulting in many deaths. This cost
them $100 million that they could have saved if they had taken the required
safety measures.
There is a natural reaction—put this off. Don’t think about it
now. Maybe nothing bad will ever happen.
If the public demands grid hardening from the utility
companies, it will happen. But maybe not soon enough. Maybe not until
government regulation forces them.
So, that brings us to the what-can-we-do question. It’s time
for some citizen lobbying.
There’s an awareness at the national level. At least eleven
studies have led to the consensus: “The nation’s bulk power distribution system
can be disrupted or destroyed over large areas due to various man-caused and
naturally occurring phenomena.[i]”
The Shield Act, to harden the grid, has come up in several legislative
sessions. But it hasn’t gotten through both houses. The threat of an EMP strike was mentioned by Ted Cruz
during one of the presidential debates. All of the Republican candidates have
been briefed on the issue,but no one else has made it a priority.
Call your representative and senators; let them know you’re
aware of the issue, care about it, see it as essential—and you will hold them
responsible.
If you’re in Texas, contact your state representative and
state senator. Let them know how urgent you believe this is. If we work during
the next several months, we can get them to make it a priority in the next
legislative session. Let them know that Senator Bob Hall will be carrying this
bill again, and encourage them to sign on with him.
But that means we’re looking at the legislative session that
starts January 2017. Most legislation that actually gets through that session
gets implemented around September 2017, or even later. That’s another year and
a half away, during which something could happen.
This could be handled by executive order. The necessary
budget for handling this critical infrastructure could be diverted from other infrastructure
funding—right away. Since offering help to the electrical industry hasn’t
worked, and since protecting infrastructure is an essential government function,
if we let Governor Abbott and Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick know we care
about this, we can get action much sooner.
If you’re in another state, press your
governor to act. Once one governor acts, others will begin to follow.
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| Guilty Knowledge by Frank Gaffney |
If you need more information to take on this issue with
knowledge, there’s a short book by Frank Gaffney, published by the Center for
Security Policy, called Guilty Knowledge:
What the US Government Knows about the Vulnerability of the Electric Grid, But
Refuses to Fix. For updates and more information,
try their website SecureTheGrid.com.
There’s also the Forstchen book I mentioned earlier; even
though it’s a novel, it contains notes on what’s real and where to find that
info. As I was researching today I came across a book called A Nation Forsaken: EMP—the Escalating Threat
of an American Catastrophe, by F. Michael Maloof. I haven’t read it, but it
looks informative.
Last Tuesday, April 26th, on the Glenn Beck Show,
he talked about this issue and other disasters with some experts, including
what you can do to protect and prepare yourself at home if the government and
utilities refuse to act. I believe he made that episode available without a
subscription.
Among the suggestions for preparing for any disaster: have
some food and water available to get you by for a while. Start with a three-day
kit. Extend to a month. And then extend to a year if you can.
We have been prudent and done that, for a couple of decades,
at our house. Long enough that a good portion reached its expiration date. We
resupplied about eight years ago. But by then I was pretty limited in my diet.
I need a refrigerator in order to eat without poisoning myself. So I’d much
prefer hardening the grid—in time—to depending on my personal preparedness.
If you’re not ready to go off grid and live off the land,
then this is the time and the issue to take on with citizen lobbying.
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