We are still nearly fifteen months out from the presidential
election. But we’re only half a year out from the primaries. Four years ago the
debates started in May, and there were far too many (twenty). So let’s consider the process less
painful this time.
There are people who look at the political process as a
sporting event. It’s a contest in popularity and strategy, rather than a civic
duty to find and support the best leadership our United States of America can
find. I don’t enjoy the game. I understand what’s at stake.
I don’t believe the election can solve all of America’s
problems, particularly those caused since the election of 2008. But I am aware
that solutions will be prevented if we don’t get someone in who boldly goes
where no one has gone—since probably Calvin Coolidge, with some reprieve during
Reagan. We need someone who understands and loves the Constitution, and
believes in the principles that lead to freedom, prosperity, and civilization.
That’s why I have my favorites already, as well as a list of
“I cannot vote for that person.”
GOP Candidates at last Monday's forum |
There was a pre-debate last Monday, a short interview
format, with eleven of the candidates. There are so many candidates this
time, it’s helpful to get an introduction. For the record, here’s the list (in alphabetical
order). Only ten were allowed to
participate in the official first debate on Thursday; I’ve listed the amount of speaking time each got in that debate, and we’ll talk about that later.
·
Jeb Bush 8:48
·
Ben Carson 6:46
·
Chris Christie 6:24
·
Ted Cruz 6:46
·
Carly Fiorina
·
Jim Gilmore
·
Lindsey Graham
·
Mike Huckabee 6:42
·
Bobby Jindal
·
John Kasich 6:52
·
George Pataki
·
Rand Paul 5:28
·
Rick Perry
·
Marco Rubio 6:49
·
Rick Santorum
·
Donald Trump 11:14
·
Scott Walker 5:45
The additional seven participated in a pre-debate second-tier
debate. Normally you’d look at the second tier as having no chance. However,
the lowest polling 2-3 who made the prime-time debate were practically
arbitrary, so doing well in the pre-debate could change the lineup for next
time.
Second-tier pre-debate |
That is particularly true for Carly Fiorina, who shone in
the pre-debate, and who capitalized on that with a good interview following the
regular debate. (She was also on fire in Monday’ forum.) And it could also
boost Rick Perry, who did well, as those of us familiar with him expect.
So, about the time in the debate. I was watching with son
Political Sphere and his wife, and working around getting kids to bed and read
to, and other life essentials. In the comings and goings, I was annoyed that we
kept hearing from Donald Trump, and it seemed like a half hour or more since we’d
heard from Ted Cruz. Supposedly, each candidate was to get the same number of
minutes. That wasn’t what we were seeing.
So I wasn’t surprised to hear afterward that there was indeed
a disparity. But the clock wasn’t just unfair to Cruz. Trump got about 4 ½ minutes
longer than Cruz, but he got far more than anyone. The closest was Jeb Bush,
who got 2 ½ minutes less than Trump. Everyone else got 4 ½ minutes less or
beyond. Rand Paul was slighted by almost 6 minutes; Trump doubled his time.
Speaking times at the first GOP debate |
But time on stage didn’t exactly equate with advantage.
We’ve waited a long time to have non-liberal media run the
GOP debates. We didn’t expect softball questions; we wanted valuable
information. Maybe we got that in spite of some of the questions. But,
particularly with Trump, the questions worked to reveal who these people are.
Trump showed himself to be brash, bullying, self-approving,
arrogant. Sure, he’s smart—at least in business. He has said frequently enough
that he has bought and paid for politicians (that’s an explanation for why he
had donated to the Clintons and others).
He was asked directly when he became a Republican. I was
interested in that, because when he declared his candidacy—that was when I
became aware that he thought of himself as a Republican. He has previously
stated support for single-payer healthcare. He used to favor abortion. Suddenly
he’s supposed to have all the beliefs of the conservatives? He didn’t answer
the turning-point question. We don’t know how he voted in the last several
presidential elections, or primaries (or if he even voted in primaries).
He could have capitalized on such an answer, but he didn’t.
In fact, he’s spent the days following the debate complaining about Fox News,
and about Megyn Kelly in particular, as ganging up on him with all the wrong
questions. If he can’t come up with a clear answer to a Fox News question, how
is he going to handle the various alphabet liberal news outlets, who will
control the message during the post-primary?
News to Trump supporters (if such exist among actual
primary-voting Republicans): Trump said nothing at the debate that he hadn’t
been saying all along. He has brought attention to the porous border, using brash
and crass soundbites. With more clarity and specifics, most of the other
candidates have been as strong on border security. Unlike most of the others,
Trump fails to mention the Constitution, even to refer to it as a guide. His
guide is his gut, which he trusts implicitly.
We are still experiencing the disaster of a president who
ignores the Constitution and goes by whatever his gut tells him to do—and accuses
any dissenters of hatred, bigotry, bitter clinging, and stupidity. We don’t
need another arrogant narcissist in the White House.
I have assumed, up to this point, that Trump is only in the
news because he has bought the coverage, and happens to be good at
self-promotion. Whatever the polls say, I have not met a single Republican who
supports him. I’ve heard a few supporters call in on radio, but I haven’t met any. Not
one.
This is Texas, where we have alternatives. Rick Perry was an
excellent governor, and deserves more consideration that the news is giving
him. If he were the candidate, I would gladly support him. But he’s not my
favorite.
Because we have Ted Cruz.
Cruz used his time well in the debate. In fact, for every
minute he was given, he probably went up a point in the polls—while for every
minute Trump got, he dropped a point or two in polls (depending on where you
look; we still don’t have a poll of likely GOP primary voters).
Cruz was given the question about what God is telling him to
do. It was intended to be a loaded question. Yes, he appeals to religious
conservatives. He’s the son of a preacher, and strongly religious. He lives it.
But the question was aimed at making him claim that God talks to him personally—which
is intended to make him, or any religious candidate, look delusional. But he
handled it brilliantly. God speaks through the scriptures, and he reads God’s
word every day. Then he told the story of life turnaround of his father, who
had been a drunkard who left Cruz and his mother. But when he found the gospel
of Christ, he turned his life around, went back to his family, and turned his
life over to God. It’s a vivid and inarguable example of the positives that belief
in God can do.
Then he used his final comments to list, very directly, whathe will do the first day in office:
If I’m elected president, let me tell you about my first day
in office. The first thing I intend to do is to rescind every illegal and
unconstitutional executive action taken by Barack Obama.
The next thing I intend to do is instruct the Department of
Justice to open an investigation into these videos and to prosecute Planned
Parenthood for any criminal violations.
The next thing I intend to do is instruct the Department of
Justice and the IRS to stop persecuting religious liberty.
And I then intend to cancel the Iran deal and, finally, move
the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.
I will keep my word. My father fled Cuba, and I will fight to
defend liberty because my family knows what it’s like to lose it.
In case you missed the connection,
that’s what God tells him to do. That happens to coincide with what God tells
me ought to be done. As a beginning.
Sometimes Rand Paul gets away with
being the Constitutional expert. But Cruz had the Constitution memorized as a
teen; he spoke on it possibly hundreds of times. He has defended the
Constitution before the Supreme Court a number of times—all successful.
Those who claim Donald Trump is
their guy because he’s bold enough to speak the truth—they haven’t been
listening carefully. Trump has been playing political games for decades, buying
influence. He’s good with PR; he’s good at getting attention. But he’s saying
what will get coverage, not how we will get back to the Constitution. Trump is
the most political being in the field, and happens to embody the caricature the
media and liberals have of Republicans. Real Republicans are nothing like him.
But if you want a bold truth
speaker—Ted Cruz will appeal to you. I assert that those who know Cruz and are
for him would not vote for Trump as their candidate. But those who have so far
been attracted to Trump for “truth
speaking” will find Cruz a much better example of what they’re looking for.
Seventeen candidates is too many.
Just a few observations.
Like I said, I cannot foresee any
scenario in which I would vote for Trump. I voted against Obama in 2008 by
holding my nose and voting for McCain. But the country is so far gone now, I
would not bother to cast a presidential vote if it were between Clinton (or any
other socialist Democrat) and Trump.
Nor do I foresee any way I would
vote for Jeb Bush. I thought he was a decent governor of Florida. There was a
time that I thought he might be the true conservative among the Bushes. But his
support of Common Core lost me. He tries to back off now, but he skirts the
issue. Nor does he stand strong on border security and obeying and sustaining
the laws. It’s not that nuanced an issue. As Cruz says: legal immigration good;
illegal immigration bad.
I also will not vote for Mike
Huckabee. He is a good speaker, and often messages the conservative viewpoint
well. But I do not believe he is a man of integrity. I hold him personally
responsible for gifting us with McCain in 2008 (his shenanigans led to the movement
from Romney leading in West Virginia caucus to McCain winning the state’s
primary, which was a turning point in the campaign).
And Huckabee has attacked my
religion (Romney’s religion) in an underhanded way, implying that we believe
Christ and Satan were good buddies and playmates prior to life here on earth.
What we believe is that we were all spirit children of Heavenly Father before
we were born here on the earth. It’s not that strange a belief (William Wordsworth and John Milton describe similar beliefs). But he twisted
it to make Mormonism seem weird, particularly to his evangelical listeners. And
it was reticence to accept a Mormon as a good Christian person that led to lack
of support of Romney again in 2012. Romney was and is a man of integrity; I do
not believe Huckabee is.
The claim following 2012 was that Romney
was too moderate, but in fact he was then and always has been more conservative
than Huckabee and most of the rest of the field. The only thing Romney lacked
was the boldness of speech and continual reference to the Constitution that we
are getting from Cruz.
There are a few candidates I would like to
see get more attention. Governor Bobby Jindal is one. The turnaround in
Louisiana—from corrupt and poverty-stricken liberal-led backwater, to
successful thriving state—is nothing short of miraculous. It is a microcosm of
the change we need to see at the national level. He doesn’t get attention
because he is low-key and soft-spoken, pretty much the opposite of Trump. Or
Obama. Following a shooting in Louisiana recently, he immediately flew to meet
the family and offer condolences in person. Without media fanfare. I believe he
is a good man and an excellent leader who should be more highly considered.
Carly Fiorina is impressive. I was
looking at her when she ran for Senate in California. She didn’t succeed, and
my memory is tickling that there were things I disagreed with her on. But
whatever that may have been, she’s not saying those things now. I would favor
her as a VP pick.
I’m still looking at Scott Walker.
He’s young enough, however, that maybe this isn’t his time, and he’s doing good
work where he is.
I’ve been wary of Marco Rubio
since a false step on immigration a year or so ago. However, if he can be
repaired on that issue, he is otherwise reasonable, smart, and reliable. His
voice is worth hearing in the race.
I enjoy hearing Chris Christie
talk. He’s entertaining. There’s more good about him than people have claimed,
since his buddying up with Obama during his state’s disaster. But he’s not
reliably conservative and Constitution loving. So, keep him working on
New Jersey.
Ben Carson is an interesting man,
and a calm voice of reason. But he doesn’t understand the Constitution well
enough, or understand the workings of government well enough, to trust with the
leadership of the country under these dire circumstances.
I have no idea why several are
running. Lindsey Graham has virtually no support, and is not a good example of
a conservative. It is a mystery to me why John Kasich is in the race—in the
upper ten. Do we want a moderate governor of a liberal state—who does not have
the stellar business record, or the Olympics, or the perfect family priorities
of the more conservative Romney? That would go better than 2012?
I used to like Rick Santorum. But
he hasn’t succeeded in leadership in more than a decade. And he showed himself
to be negative in the last go-round. A good man, but I don’t think he’s right
for the presidency.
I’m unaware of Jim Gilmore, except
that he’s the former Governor of Virginia. George Pataki may be familiar to New
Yorkers, but he does not speak to me here in Texas.
So, let’s hear a lot more from Cruz.
And give more voice to Jindal, Perry, Fiorina, Walker, and Rubio. And let’s
ignore any media that tries to cram Trump or Bush down our throats. And very
soon, the wannabees who shouldn’t be in the race ought to bow out.
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